(1) Spot silver spot ground inventory

At present, the global spot silver is about 137400 tons, and the ground spot silver stock is still growing at an annual rate of about 2%.

(2) Annual supply and demand

The annual supply and demand of spot silver is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced spot silver accounts for 62% of the annual supply.

(3) New gold mining costs

The average total cost of spot silver mining is slightly lower than $260 per ounce. Due to the development of mining technology, the development cost of spot silver has been declining in recent 20 years.

(4) Political, military and economic changes in spot silver producing countries.

Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the spot silver production in this country, and then affect the world spot silver supply.

(5) The central bank sells spot silver.

The central bank is the largest holder of spot silver in the world. 1969 The official spot silver reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total spot silver inventory on the surface at that time. By 1998, the official spot silver reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined spot silver stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world spot silver mine in 13 years. As the main use of spot silver has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, or to improve the international balance of payments, or to suppress the international gold price, the central bank's spot silver reserves have greatly declined in both absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on selling spot silver reserves in the spot silver market. For example, the large-scale selling of the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank and the plan of the International Monetary Fund to reduce the spot silver reserves have become the main reasons for the recent decline in the gold price in the international spot silver market. 2. Demand factor: the demand for spot silver is directly related to the use of spot silver.

(1) actual demand change of spot silver (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).

Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand of spot silver. For example, in the field of microelectronics, point silver is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration, etc., although the progress of science and technology makes the substitutes of spot silver appear constantly, the demand of spot silver is still on the rise because of its special metal properties.

In some areas, local factors have a great influence on the demand for spot silver. For example, due to the financial crisis, India and Southeast Asian countries, which have always had a great demand for spot silver jewelry, have greatly reduced the import of spot silver since 1997. According to the data of World Spot Silver Association, the demand for spot silver in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively.

(2) the need to preserve value.

Spot silver reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in spot silver is mainly to achieve the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, because spot silver insured monetary assets, the demand for spot silver increased and the price of gold rose. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up spot silver in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. The depreciation of 1987 dollars, the increase of the deficit in the United States and the instability in the Middle East also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices.

(3) Speculative demand.

According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the spot silver market and the trading system in the spot silver futures market to "short" or "cover" spot silver in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of spot silver demand. In the spot silver market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term spot silver to sell in the spot silver market and establishing a large number of short positions in the COMEX spot silver futures exchange. When the spot silver price fell to a 20-year low 1999 in July, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that COMEX's speculative short position was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the spot silver price fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up the position and make a profit. When the gold price rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from manufacturers suppressed the further rise of spot silver price, and at the same time gave the fund company a new opportunity to re-establish short positions, forming a downward pattern of spot silver price at that time. 3. Other factors: (l) the impact of the exchange rate of the US dollar.

The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. Generally, when the dollar in the spot silver market rises, the price of gold will fall; When the dollar fell, the price of gold rose. A strong dollar generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of spot silver as a means of value storage will be weakened; The decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn, and the value-preserving function of spot silver is once again reflected. This is because the depreciation of the dollar is often related to inflation, while the value of spot silver is high. In the case of the depreciation of the dollar and the intensification of inflation, it will often stimulate the preservation and speculative demand for spot silver.

(2) National monetary policies are closely related to the international spot silver price.

When a country adopts a loose monetary policy, due to the reduction of interest rates, the country's money supply increases, which increases the possibility of inflation and will lead to the rise of spot silver prices.

(3) The influence of inflation on the price of gold.

In this regard, long-term and short-term analysis is needed, and it depends on the degree of inflation in the short term. In the long run, if the annual inflation rate changes within the normal range, it will have little impact on the fluctuation of gold prices; Only in a short period of time, the price rises sharply, causing people to panic, and the purchasing power of monetary units declines, will the price of gold rise sharply.

(4) The influence of international trade, finance and foreign debt deficit on gold price.

Debt is a worldwide problem, not just a unique phenomenon in developing countries. In the debt chain, not only the debtor countries can't repay their debts, which leads to economic stagnation, but also the economic stagnation further aggravates the vicious circle of debt. Even creditor countries are in danger of financial collapse because of the breakdown of relations with debtor countries. At this time, in order to maintain their own economy from harm, countries will reserve a large amount of spot silver, which has caused the spot silver price in the market to rise.

(5) International political turmoil, war, etc.

Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for the war or in order to maintain domestic economic stability, a large number of investors turn to spot silver to preserve the value, which will expand the demand for spot silver and stimulate the price of gold to rise.

(6) The influence of the stock market on the price of gold.

Generally speaking, the stock market falls and the price of gold rises. This mainly reflects investors' expectations of economic development prospects. If everyone is generally optimistic about the economic prospects, a lot of money will flow to the stock market, and the investment enthusiasm in the stock market will be high, and the price of gold will fall.

In addition to the above factors that affect the price of gold, the intervention activities of international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of central financial institutions in China and other regions will also have a significant impact on the changes in the world spot silver price. So what are the common spot silver trading institutions?