Golden age! The future increase of gold may be "very popular"

Under the influence of multiple favorable factors, the price of gold rose steadily, reaching a six-year high of 15 10.46 USD/oz.

Geopolitical tension, global trade tension, rising risk aversion in financial markets, and the tide of interest rate cuts by global central banks have all prompted the price of gold to keep rising and hit record highs.

In this regard, well-known investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and other institutions believe that due to the continuous tension in international trade and the wave of loosening monetary policy by global central banks, the price of gold is expected to exceed the high of $65,438+$0.700.

Gold is once again sought after by investors, stimulating the soaring price of gold, which is the result of a combination of many factors. ......

Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank, said: At present, the global situation is unstable and gold will benefit from it. This means that the gold price will remain strong for at least the next 6 to 12 months. Money flows into the gold market from all over the world. The yield of US Treasury bonds (opposite to the price trend) plummeted to the highest level since the eve of Trump's election as president in 20 16.

In addition, it is worth noting that the amount of gold bought by central banks has reached the highest level in six years, which has boosted the price of gold.

Naeem Aslam, an analyst, pointed out that in 20 19 years, with the recession of the American economy, the performance of gold may be even brighter. As a leading indicator of American economic health, the real estate market is showing some serious concerns. Business investment has dried up in the third quarter, and the effect of the Trump administration's tax cuts has almost disappeared.

Under the leadership of Russia, central banks have increased their holdings of gold, shipped it back, dollarized it or become a worldwide trend.

The best way to accelerate dollarization and reduce dependence on dollar assets is to increase holdings of gold. In the first six months of this year, Russia increased its holdings of 80 tons of gold, and its total holdings climbed to 2 183 tons, accounting for 18.3% of foreign exchange reserves. Even last year, Russia sold almost all the US dollar bonds, withdrew from the ranks of major holders of US debt, and began to buy gold crazily, becoming the famous biggest buyer of gold at that time.

Under the leadership of Russia, the whole world seems to be dollarized to varying degrees, and the hegemonic position of the dollar is being challenged as never before. Because since the end of 20 17, the US dollar has strengthened, prompting the depreciation of non-US currencies. Up to now, the devaluation of the currencies of India, Britain, South Korea and Brazil against the US dollar has reached double digits, exceeding 10%. Now the dollar seems to be a sharp weapon for the United States to deal with other countries.

According to the data of the World Gold Council, in 20 18, global central banks bought 652 tons, up 74% year-on-year, which is the highest level of gold held by central banks since the collapse of the 197 1 Bretton Woods system. By the first quarter of this year, the world's major central banks had snapped up 145.5 tons of gold, an increase of nearly 68% compared with 86.7 tons in the same period last year.

In addition, due to distrust of the United States, many countries demand that the gold stored in the United States be shipped back. At present, 1 1 countries, including France, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Turkey, Hungary and Belgium, have announced that they will ship back their gold reserves from the United States. Even Russia and the European Union began to jointly establish a dollar-free international payment system, and the wave of de-dollarization swept the world. If the United States continues to abuse dollar hegemony, I am afraid that there will be no dollar hegemony in the future.

All in all, the price of gold is likely to continue to rise. The weak economic growth, the geopolitical escalation in Europe, and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will pose a greater threat to President Trump's term of office, which may push the gold price to break through the 1700 mark in 20 19.

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