First of all, China is the largest hotel market in the world.

Some time ago, many media heated up the theme of "oversupply of budget hotels", which left me speechless. In order to avoid suspicion, it was inconvenient to talk about it at that time. It is an indisputable fact that China's mass consumption market is the largest in the world.

We can look at these figures again. EU 500 million, USA 300 million, South America 400 million, India 65.438+0.2 billion, China 654.38+0.37 billion. Even if China's current urbanization rate is 30%, it will be 400 million. The urbanization rate will reach 50% in the future, that is, 600-700 million people. The urbanized population of the European Union, the United States and South America lags far behind that of China. The process of urbanization in India is very difficult, and it is difficult for the urbanized population to surpass China now and in the future.

Huge consumer groups constitute a huge spending power, and will also make great commercial organizations: Tencent, Ali, Yum!, China Mobile and China Industrial and Commercial Bank. ......

Is budget hotel a mass consumer market? The price is between 100-300 yuan, which I think even migrant workers in the city can afford. According to the number of hotel rooms per capita (urban population), if it reaches the level of the United States today, the largest hotel group in China should have the scale of tens of thousands of stores. This process took about 60 years in the United States, 40 years in Europe and 30 years in China. Subtract the 10 years that we have spent, that is, the concentration of China Hotel Group should reach a new high point in the next 20 years.

Secondly, China is the fastest growing hotel market in the world.

Tell a short story first.

Once I went to Bordeaux Winery for a holiday with my friends. I rode my bike on a country road and happened to see ibis in a nearby village. At that time, I immediately stood in awe and thought Accor was awesome! I can't believe I can drive the hotel to such a far country! I went in and borrowed the bathroom. When I saw the guests in the old hotel sitting in the old bar, I suddenly realized that Accor, like these old people, has limited room for growth: Ibis has been driven to such a remote village, where to go? How will Accor develop in Europe? How big is the room for growth?

Look back at China. Look at a set of GDP data first:

Although the growth rate of China has slowed down in recent years, compared with developed countries, our GDP growth rate is still far ahead, and it should continue for more than 10 years. High growth brings high growth, including the hotel industry which is closely related to economic growth.

Look at the growth of hotel supply in the United States accordingly:

In recent years, the hotel industry in the United States has grown slowly, even without growth. I believe the situation in Europe is similar.

Compared with the rapid growth of China, Europe and the United States are growing slowly or without growth, which reflects the high growth potential of China's hotel market.

Furthermore, information flow strengthens logistics and accelerates the flow of people.

Due to the development of e-commerce, single-point to multi-point logistics has developed unprecedentedly. From the endless flow of large trucks on the expressway to the parcel storage points that infiltrated the community, such a huge logistics may only be compared with millions of migrant workers in the Huaihai Campaign in history. The Huaihai campaign lasted for two months, but it would be normal for such a large logistics to flow in the motherland.

When the internet first came out, with the appearance of videophone, people once thought that business trips would be reduced. But in fact, with the rapid spread of information, people's pace of life and work has accelerated. It used to take a month to exchange business letters and business faxes, but now it can be done in a day or two by mail. Such as field trips, practical experiences, meetings and contacts, have also accelerated the pace.

Information flow further accelerates the frequency of people flow, which naturally increases the demand of hotels.

Finally, the demand for holidays has risen sharply.

Wealthy people in China began to shift from "traveling here" to "leisure vacation" (hence the name of our holiday brand). I ran abroad at home, went to Hainan, went to Changbai Mountain, and traveled after the National Day and the Spring Festival. Our store in Hangzhou is sure to be full every weekend. Fast pace, people need to relax and adjust; Fast-paced, I earn a lot and have money to play.

The same situation has been experienced in Europe and America, and it has become the norm. In other words, the growing holiday crowd in China will not be a flash in the pan, but customers who have settled in our hotel. In the future, the proportion of leisure and business customers will reach 45%:55% (currently 50%:50% in the United States), which should be possible.

Large-scale market+rapid growth+information flow promotion+the rise of holiday market, China hotel industry is facing unprecedented huge benefits, and this bull market will last at least 10-20 years. Twenty years later, China enterprises may have acquired some European and American hotel brands, and have their own hotel networks in South America, Asia and even Africa.

Viewpoint 2: The star standard is declining, and the brand chain is thriving.

First, the star standard is out of date, and China needs brands more.

Star standard is a set of industry norms that follow the European model and standardize the hardware standards and service standards of China hotel industry. It has been used for decades. It should be said that it has played a great role in the normalization of the hotel industry in China. However, with the further development of the hotel industry and the constant changes of society, it is becoming more and more unsuitable for the future trend.

Moreover, this government advocates simplicity and opposes extravagance and waste. Last year's article 8 made detailed provisions on high-end consumption. Four, five-star hotel catering consumption dropped sharply, room occupancy rate plummeted. Many rigid regulations of star-rated hotels, such as gymnasiums, swimming pools and Chinese and western restaurants, are even more out of date under the pressure of rising labor costs.

Brand is used to distinguish users and define user groups with different business purposes, different aesthetic tastes, different spending power and different age levels. The star standard is too general and rigid for many years. Only brands can help users segment the market.

Moreover, compared with Europe and America, China needs brands more.

China's service industry has been suppressed for a long time, and its service level is uneven. We should all have had the experience of being beheaded and cheated on the trip. When booking a three-star hotel, it is difficult to determine what level of products and services you will face.

So in China, where the service industry is not very developed, people need brands to define, protect and identify. Brands and chain stores give customers a kind of trust and commitment.

In China, where brands are more needed, the number of hotel chains is only one sixth of that in the United States. The number of rooms per capita (urban population) is almost one-sixth that of the United States. If the growth of rooms and the concentration of chain degree are taken into account at the same time, the brand chain potential of China hotel market is 36 times that of the United States!

2. Contact enables success to be replicated.

If the famous saying at the beginning of Anna karenin is applied to the study of success, it becomes: all failures are similar; All success is different. Therefore, in business, success is difficult to be copied and copied, and almost all catch-up imitations end in failure. Everyone wants to learn Haidilao, which can't be stopped by the earth, but Huang Tieying wrote a book called Haidilao, Can't You Learn? This makes everyone very disappointed!

12 years ago, I found an economical hotel management mode of "lease+decoration". At that time, the investment cash flow of a store can be recovered in 2-3 years, which should be said to be a very good business model.

Because of the entanglement between joining and direct selling, I also specially consulted Mr. Su, a veteran of the chain industry. He made me wake up with a simple sentence: where can I find a business with a return rate of more than 20% in EBIT in the world! Yes! Only fools will join!

However, the development of budget hotels is out of control. Some people don't even have a model shop, so they use pyramid schemes with high bonuses and high rebates to sell and join; Some people learn a little from the orient and copy a little from the west. They use shoddy products and high-tech fashionable formulas to attract consumers at low prices and fool franchisees.

No way, the successful formula has been badly imitated and widely circulated. God will not speak, and bad money will drive out good money. We are the last hotel group (two years ago) to start a large-scale franchise business, and perhaps the only brand company that always reminds franchisees of investment risks. So in the first year (20 13), it surpassed the industry leader and became the fastest growing brand.

/kloc-The secret recipe of success found 0/2 years ago is to create "successful replication" by joining the chain! It can make more people enjoy clean and affordable modern hotel chains on the road; I am glad that more investors can start businesses by joining us and enjoy a stable and considerable return on investment!

3. In the chain mode, management joining will be the main way, supplemented by pure joining.

Different from the situation in the United States, most of the joining owners in China have advantages in finding property, straightening out local relations and raising investment funds, but they are not interested in or professional in the daily management of hotels. Those owners who are not interested are happy to hand over the daily management of franchise stores to them, so they can free up their energy to find more quality properties; You can also travel around and enjoy life. Those who are unprofessional in management, self-management will only be thankless. In order to maintain brand consistency, struggles and conflicts between the two sides are inevitable. It is best to adopt a professional management team, so that both sides can save trouble. Franchisees can maintain the quality of the brand through management, and also increase part of their income and profits (though very thin). However, it is not excluded that some franchisees, whose management level even exceeds the average level of chain brands, let them manage themselves, whether it is a good method.

However, such owners are a minority after all. Those companies that do pure franchising are all operated by franchisees themselves, and they will face the risk of brand dilution until they are eliminated one day. It's hard to save trouble by doing chain stores in China.

Viewpoint 3: the middle and low grades are the main ones.

According to Lu's "Report on Social Strata in Contemporary China", I compiled this map of the distribution of various strata in China, which is very valuable to people engaged in business.

It can be clearly seen from this picture that the commercial strength of China in the future lies in 6% of the top+16% of the middle+half of the bottom 28% = 50%, with about 690 million people. Judging from the income level, the consumption power of this group of people is still dominated by middle and low grades. Luxury consumption is conspicuous, gift-oriented and abnormal. With the promulgation of the eight central regulations, the luxury consumption of gift money is disappearing.

It takes time to create a country's wealth. With such a large population base and so many poor people in China, it will take longer to increase the per capita wealth. I estimate that such consumption characteristics will not change in 20 years.

Even in Europe and America, where the economy is quite developed, middle and low-grade hotels are still the main consumers. About 70% of Accor's rooms are low-end hotels. What's more, China, where we just solved the problem of food and clothing?

High-end hotels, luxury hotels, face, highlights, local tyrants like, the government likes. But what about the return on investment? It is still a real affirmation of middle and low-end hotels.

Viewpoint 4: the rise of local hotel groups

Faced with such a huge market potential and growth space in China, the international hotel oligarchs have long been salivating and achieved good results. They occupy the market share of almost all luxury brands and have absolute advantages in high-end hotels, but in the economy brand market, they are a fiasco.

Accor, Intercontinental, Windham and so on. Are trying to develop their own budget hotel brands in China. IBIS adopts a new model, the product is good, but the speed is slow; Intercontinental holiday is fast, and we dare not compete with our local group, so we have to position ourselves as a mid-range brand. We have learned from the good examples of Holiday Inn and borrowed their names of "Express", such as Home Inn and Hanting Express, so that "Express" has become synonymous with budget hotels. In order to draw a clear line with the economy, they even changed the Chinese name and changed the "Holiday Express Hotel" to "Smart Holiday". Windham is more chaotic and opportunistic, taking advantage of the weakness of state-owned enterprises and local tyrants who worship foreign things and do not understand the market, and franchising low-end brands such as Howard Johnson (economical), Tian Tian (economical) and Ramada (mid-range) into 4-star and 5-star high-end brands. When Windham didn't meet a real opponent, his life was not bad, so it's hard to say in the future.

Comrade Xiaoping said during his inspection tour in Shenzhen: We should have our own fist products and create our own brands in China, otherwise we will be bullied. Although we are not ethnic chauvinists, we are still indignant at the strong and overbearing attitude of foreign brands towards China owners. We have won the battle for budget hotels and are marching into mid-range hotels. Mid-range hotels also need cost control and owners' returns, so it is difficult for foreigners to be competitive. Many holidays in China are high-rise buildings, glamorous facades, a large number of rooms, and the lobby is covered with marble. I am confident that such products and return on investment will be difficult to compete with us in the whole season and star journey. Our new all-season room experience has gone far beyond holiday rooms, because their product model is based on budget hotels. With strong vanity and good face, there are fewer and fewer car owners who worship foreign things and flatter foreign countries. Moreover, it is difficult for mid-range hotels to support the owners. Why not proudly build a Ritz-Carlton hotel? It's no use choosing a holiday wisely, is it?

In order to gain a firm foothold in the middle and low-grade hotel market, we will enter the management market of high-grade hotels without modesty. I believe that with tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of loyal customers, a solid management and operation system and a well-trained and United team, we can still compete with foreign brands in the high-end market.

With the popularity of China people's outbound travel, more and more people go abroad every year. We can follow these people and open our own hotel chains around the world. In addition to integrating into the local business circle, we will also attract more tourists from China. Just as foreign brands used foreign guests to take over cities in China, with the strength of China, the economic strength of China and the globalization of tourists from China, China's hotel brands have the opportunity to achieve global expansion.

China's local hotel groups have begun to rise. Relying on the localized market, international capital and global talents, there is no doubt that they will become one of the top five hotel groups in the world 10.

Forecast: the trend of key indicators of budget hotels

The key indicators related to hotels are: the cost of property acquisition; RevPAR single room income, that is, the product of rental rate and average house price; Labor cost.

Rent continues to rise.

At present, most budget hotels acquire properties through leasing. From the past 10 years, the rent of real estate has been growing steadily, but it is still stable and rational compared with the house price. In the next 20 years, property rents will rise steadily, at least to offset the inflation rate. My opinion about the rising rent is: don't worry too much. On the surface, the acquisition of property is the competition among tenants, but in fact, it is more the competition among various formats. Is the rent for office buildings or hotels high? Is it better to be a hotel or a hospital or a new oriental? This factor determines the value orientation of developers. In a big shopping mall, efficient catering brands crowd out inefficient brands; In thousands to thousands of buildings, the same efficient buildings crowd out inefficient buildings. EBIT's earnings before interest and tax can roughly reflect the priority of obtaining property in each format. Which industry has a high EBIT per square meter, the more advantageous it is to acquire property.

The average house price is under pressure in the short term and optimistic in the long term.

With inflation and strong brand, it is reasonable to say that the average house price can rise gradually, at least to offset inflation and balance the rise of rent. However, in the past few years, several major economic hotel chains have expanded at a world-class speed, which makes the supply of homogenized products remain high and does not give the market much breathing space. It stands to reason that the modern chain economy hotels in China are still in a period of rapid growth, and there are still dozens of times of space (36 times mentioned above). However, it is a bit crowded to expand quickly in a narrow space in a short time. With the formation of several oligopolistic brand groups, and after a period of time and a large relief space, the average house price has enough room to rise.

The rent will come down slowly.

Today, the average occupancy rate of our industry is around 90%, and some stores even exceed 100%. Such a high rental rate is also a miracle in the world. This is related to my proposal to rent a house on time when I first entered this industry. In fact, renting has always existed, and many high-end hotels will not list such customers separately because of face. However, as an enterprise, we should be like Mrs. A Qing. Everyone is a guest, and we should treat every guest equally. The core of budget hotels is to provide cost-effective rooms. If we can help our customers save money, we can make more money. Why not? Today, the occupancy rate of all chain brands is above 65,438+00%, which makes our average occupancy rate among the best in the world.

The hotel occupancy rate in Hong Kong has always been very high, about 80% (there is no concept of hourly rent), which should be said to be the international advanced level. The average occupancy rate of hotels in the United States is around 60%, while that of star-rated hotels in China is less than 60%. With the penetration of third-and fourth-tier cities and the further improvement of the chain rate, our overnight rental rate will be gradually adjusted back to about 70% (currently 80%), and will be adjusted back to about 85% with the hourly rental rate 15%.

Single room income RevPAR grew slowly.

RevPAR obtained by multiplying the average house price and occupancy rate will not disappoint everyone, and it should be no problem to keep up with and exceed the inflation rate. RevPAR growth is difficult to partially absorb the rent increase, but it does not make this business model reach the risk of imbalance.

The rise of manpower is inevitable.

The originally rich demographic dividend is slowly thinning. One is the decrease of rural labor force, and the other is that the country keeps raising the minimum wage, and the labor cost has risen rapidly in recent years. It is a great challenge for the labor-intensive service industry. Compared with the traditional star-rated hotels, the economic chain group has made a subversive change in the labor cost, from the ratio of people to rooms in the same star-rated hotel 1: 1 to 0.3 and 0.2. In order to maintain the competitive advantage in the future rising trend of labor force, it is necessary to further reduce this ratio. On the contrary, star-rated hotels will lose their competitiveness further, and those large comprehensive high-end hotels will be replaced by luxury brands.