[Introduction] The market price of jadeite has doubled and become a crazy stone. All roads are being robbed. If you want to know the method, take a look at the following article!
Emperor Qianlong's New Year Emerald
Boss Li has been in the jade business for more than ten years. His shop is located in a famous professional art market in Beijing's North Third Ring Road, where many merchants specializing in jadeite jade are gathered. He has been a little depressed recently. "Buyers think that jade prices are soaring now, and we should make a big profit. In fact, the business is also very painful now. " Boss Li told China Economic Weekly, "My sales volume is almost the same as in the past, but my profit is getting lower and lower."
When the reporter was in boss Li's shop, it happened that a regular customer came to see the bracelet. The guest was very satisfied with the bracelet, but the transaction was not reached because the psychological price difference between the two sides was too far. "This bracelet should be a batch of goods I bought from you before, and the price can't be so much worse!" When the guest complained, he just said the word "profiteer".
Boss Li is very wronged. He told reporters that this bracelet was indeed a batch of goods bought by guests six months ago, and the cost price was similar. "I can sell this colored bracelet for 50,000 yuan in the past, and now it is a bit reluctant to 65,438+10,000 yuan. It seems that my profit is more, but this 65438+ million can't get such goods at all. Now the market is that flour is more expensive than bread. "
Boss Li told reporters that the cost price of jadeite mainly has three parts: first, the price of original stone; The second is the labor cost; The third is the operating cost of the store. "Although the labor cost has increased, it is not severe, mainly because the price of raw stone has risen too high, especially for good materials, which is simply outrageous." Boss Li said, "It has nothing to do with bracelets. It depends on whether the material is good or not, so it rises the most. " The reporter also made a small-scale investigation. There are not a few businesses like Boss Li who can't afford to buy good goods or dare not sell them easily.
"The purchase cost of merchants has increased a lot, which has virtually raised the threshold, but the acceptance of consumers has not increased a lot at once, so the profit margin left for merchants is getting smaller and smaller. Now many businesses without strength have closed down, or switched to other jade, and more are mainly selling' live'. " Wan Jun, founder and chief appreciation expert of Wan Ruixiang Emerald Club, told China Economic Weekly.
The "activity" mentioned by Wan Zan is the name used by experts in the jade industry to make money. Usually refers to those seedless or colorless jadeites with average quality, and those with poor quality are called "junk goods". "At present, the biggest increase is the top jadeite with collectible value. For example, the glass is all green, and the increase is amazing. However, the increase in commercial activities is not large, and there is almost no increase in junk. " Wan Jun said.
Myanmar's public market "breaks records"
Wan Zan believes that there are two main reasons why the jade market presents the current situation: First, it comes from buyers. China has a tradition of "hiding gold in troubled times and jade in prosperous times" since ancient times, and now there are more and more jade collectors. "The jade collection is easy to get started, because it is easy to judge whether it is true or false, and it can almost reach the accuracy of 100%, while other collections are more or less difficult to distinguish between true and false."
The second is from the seller. A very important feature of the jade market is the single source of raw materials, which is only available in Myanmar in the world. Myanmar jadeite is shipped at the annual public auction (Myanmar has strict management of jadeite resources, and it can only be traded out of the country through the public auction). "In fact, the skyrocketing price of raw materials began in 2009, but it will take some time to be transmitted to the retail market, which may be 3-6 months behind." Wan Jun said.
"Judging from the four public offerings in 2009, the price of jadeite raw materials rose by 30% throughout the year. The growth momentum of the two open markets that have been carried out on 20 10 is even stronger. " Ao Yan, Secretary General of Jade Branch of China Jewelry and Jade Jewelry Industry Association, told China Economic Weekly. According to Aoyan, the initial public offering in March this year, when the quantity of raw materials was flat and high-grade good materials were relatively reduced, the total transaction volume soared from one billion to three billion, with 3,000 participants, compared with more than 1 1,000 in previous years. In July, the same raw materials were short of high-grade good materials, the turnover reached 7 billion, and the number of people entering the market set a record of more than 5,000.
"The rise in the price of jadeite raw materials will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of jadeite finished products. This increase is the overall increase, but the good and high-end varieties have increased even more. " Yan Yan said.
The price of Myanmar's open market has always been regarded as the weather vane of the jade market price, so both Wanjun and Aoyan continue to be optimistic about the jade market price. "From the perspective of the history of jade development, its price has been on the rise. The better the economic environment, the faster it will rise." Yan Yan said.
Due to the mechanized mining method, the jadeite mining amount in Myanmar in recent 20 years is equivalent to 10 times of the total mining amount in the previous 300 years. Myanmar is the home base of jadeite in the world. More than 90% of the jadeite in the world is produced in Myanmar, and the top jadeite is almost only produced in Myanmar.
It is generally estimated in the industry that at the current mining speed, the jadeite in Myanmar can only be mined for 10 ~ 20 years, but now some high-grade good materials have been mined almost, such as the famous green rough stone with glass seeds in Munakangkou, which has been set on fire, but some Myanmar mine owners still have some stocks.
"The future price increase is certain, at least this year there is no doubt." Wan Zan suggested that in the current market situation, the collection must be carefully selected, and if you want to buy it, you should buy a boutique. There are two main directions worth considering: First, the top-level species, such as the old pit species and the green glass species in Mu Na. "But now such things are really not something that ordinary people can do, because almost all of them are millions." She said.
The second direction is suitable for ordinary investors. "The materials are not necessarily good, but the works are very distinctive. This kind of jade is currently in recession, and I think the increase in labor costs in the future will definitely exceed the increase in raw material prices. " Wan Jun said.
Emerald is "making up"
The exhaustion of old ore raw materials and the poor quality of new ore raw materials are the main reasons for the serious shortage of high-quality jadeite and the soaring price. However, behind the normal logic, the sudden surge in jade prices is undeniably related to "hot money" and "investors".
An industry insider who participated in Myanmar's open market twice this year told reporters that he saw many new faces in the open market. "Most of them are industrial capital from Zhejiang, Fujian and Shanxi." For the widely speculated statement that "3 billion hot money has entered the jade market", his estimate is bolder. "There must be more than this number, there are tens of billions, but not everyone has shot."
On June 24th this year, Shantou Airport started six charter flights to Yangon, Myanmar in one day, which was an unprecedented "event" in the 36 years since Shantou Airport started sailing. The passengers on board were basically jade investors from Guangdong.
In addition to big speculators, the power of the masses cannot be ignored. "In the past, people bought jade mainly for wearing, but now more and more people buy jade mainly for investment. In the past, only about 5% of investors have soared to about 50% in the last year or two. " Wan Jun said.
In the last year or two, Wanjun often meets some new buyers. He has never touched jade, and he can't even tell the truth from the false. He just heard that jade appreciated rapidly, so he came with millions and said he wanted to buy jade. Every time Wanzan will persuade them to fully understand the characteristics and market of jade before buying it.
Will jadeite repeat the mistakes of Pu 'er tea?
Such a strong and typical "fried" smell makes people have to worry, will jadeite repeat the mistakes of "Pu 'er tea" that was once a smash hit in previous years? Ao Yan believes that the comparability between the two is not great.
"The value base and social recognition of jade and Pu 'er tea are incomparable. Jade is a non-renewable resource product. Its beauty, rarity and durability, its hundreds of years of historical accumulation, its additional arts and crafts and humanistic values all determine that it has high value and social recognition. It is precisely because of these characteristics that people have great expectations and tolerance for its price range. Even if it continues to rise, the public can still understand and recognize its value. Pu' er is not so valuable in nature and cannot be compared with jade. " He said.
Wan Zan also believes that although speculators have played a role in fueling the flames, there is no bubble in the jade market, and it is more a compensatory growth.
"In fact, among all kinds of collectibles, jade is the latest price increase. Since 2003, calligraphy and painting in China have risen sharply, followed by official kiln porcelain in Ming and Qing Dynasties. After 2005, China oil paintings began to rise sharply. At the same time, new white jade and white jade raw materials also appeared in a hot market. Emerald began to rise sharply in early 2009. " She said.
As for one of the reasons for the latest rise in the jade market, Wanzan believes that there is no speculation. "In this line of work, you can speculate without money, because jade has no secondary market and it is difficult to realize it. It is unrealistic to want to fast-forward and fast-forward roasted seeds and nuts. " She said. To understand jadeite, the quality and value of jadeite are mainly judged from three aspects: species refers to the fiber structure of jadeite, the more uniform the particle size, the finer the structure, the better. According to the grade, it can be roughly divided into glass seed, ice seed, oil seed and bean seed. Glass seed is the best of jadeite. Water refers to the transparency of jadeite, which is generally divided into transparent, relatively transparent, translucent, slightly transparent and opaque. The higher the transparency of jadeite, the higher the value. Color refers to the color of jadeite, such as green, red, purple and white, among which green is the best. In the jade industry, there is a saying that "laymen look at colors and experts look at varieties". Good jadeite has the largest appreciation space, such as top glass species and ice species. In the past ten years, jadeite with good planting and water has appreciated very quickly, even if it is colorless or not good enough in color, the price has even increased by nearly 100 times. On the contrary, some particularly green varieties, such as "Tielongsheng", are completely opaque and hardly appreciate.