According to industry analysis, holiday consumption is still a recovery growth, and the characteristics of compensatory consumption are obvious. In the long run, consumption recovery still has a long way to go. The income growth rate of urban and rural residents is not as fast as that of economic growth, so the focus of macro-policy should pay more attention to increasing residents' income and improving income distribution. Increasing income is the core and foundation of stabilizing consumption and forming a "double cycle".
Accelerated release of consumer demand
National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are celebrated together in the context of the effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. As a representative of aggregate consumption, retail and catering consumption has become one of the highlights of the Golden Week.
65438+ 10 1 8, the average daily sales of national key retail and catering monitoring enterprises increased by 4.9% compared with last year's "Eleventh" Golden Week. However, this growth rate of 4.9% still lags far behind the same period last year. During the golden week of 20 17-20 191month, the average daily sales growth rate of national retail and catering key monitoring enterprises was 10.3%, 9.5% and 8.5% respectively.
During the holiday season, the sales of key monitoring enterprises in Ningbo, Beijing, Gansu, Shanghai and Hainan increased by 18.8%, 18.6%, 14.4%, 13.7% and 12.5% respectively. Taking Hainan as an example, the General Administration of Customs announced on the 9th that during the first Mid-Autumn National Day holiday after the implementation of the new policy of duty-free shopping for outlying islands, Haikou Customs * * * supervised a total of 65.438+0.40 billion yuan, 654.38+0.468 million person-times and 998,900 pieces of duty-free shopping for outlying islands in Hainan, up by 654.38+0.48% and 97.9% respectively.
According to the Ministry of Commerce, during the "Eleventh" Golden Week, consumer demand accelerated, market sentiment continued to rise, and domestic macro-cycle vitality was strong. Commodity consumption continued to escalate, basic consumer demand such as food and clothing grew steadily, and sales of upgraded commodities such as organic food, automobiles, smart home appliances and gold, silver and jewelry increased substantially.
Benefiting from the domestic consumer market, under the situation of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the tourism economy has entered a new stage of comprehensive resumption of work and production. According to the data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the eight-day long holiday, the national * * * received 637 million domestic tourists, a year-on-year recovery of 79.0% based on comparable caliber; Domestic tourism revenue was 466.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.9% based on comparable caliber.
The film industry also ushered in an outbreak during the Golden Week. The latest data shows that in 2020, the National Day file ended with a box office score of 3.95 billion yuan, making it the second highest box office file in history. With the emergence of diversified content types, the blessing of digital publicity and the effective control of the epidemic, the attendance rate has increased to 75%. In 2020, the annual box office in China has exceeded 654.38+0.22 billion yuan (US$ 654.38+0.8 billion).
Compensatory consumption has obvious characteristics.
Zheng Houcheng said that from the perspective of the operation of the real economy, under the adjustment of countercyclical policies, the total profit of industrial enterprises recorded double-digit growth for three consecutive months in the month, and the number of enterprises with accumulated losses in industrial enterprises continued to decline year-on-year. In this context, the unemployment rate in urban surveys is likely to continue to decline if the superimposed exports improve. The growth rate of residents' income in the third quarter is expected to bottom out, which will support the consumption during the Golden Week.
In addition, behind the eye-catching consumption data is the emergence of a series of promotion fee policy dividends from the central government to the local government this year. In September this year, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Business Forms, New Models and New Consumption. In July, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 13 departments issued the Opinions on Supporting the Healthy Development of New Business Forms and New Models, Activating the Consumer Market and Promoting the Expansion of Employment, and put forward 19 supporting policies to accelerate the healthy development of 15 new business forms and new models.
Locally, Jiangxi Province, Shandong Province, Guizhou Province, Sichuan Province and other places have recently organized tourism industry development conferences to take hard and practical measures to stimulate the potential and vitality of cultural tourism investment.
Zheng Houcheng said that from the perspective of policy support, the central bank will reduce RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, and timely innovate monetary policy tools that go directly to the real economy, increase financial support, and protect market players. The Ministry of Finance increased tax reduction and fee reduction and transfer payments. The Ministry of Commerce launched the "Consumption Promotion Month", which has formed a positive trend that runs through the whole year, leads the whole year and drives consumption throughout the year.
Increasing residents' income is the basis of consumption.
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the market demand has weakened and the recovery of consumption has been weak. Residents' non-necessities, aggregation, mobility and contact consumption have been severely restrained, which has become a weak link in economic recovery.
The year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods finally ushered in the first positive growth in August, but the cumulative growth rate was still negative. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from June 5438 to August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 23,802.9 billion yuan, and the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 2 15 139 billion yuan, both down 8.6% year-on-year.
Zheng Houcheng said that consumption is the "stabilizer" of the macro economy and has a strong procyclicality. The rebound in consumption growth is largely driven by good macroeconomic expectations. With the substantial victory in epidemic prevention and control, superimposed macroeconomic repair, the high probability of consumption growth in the fourth quarter gradually improved.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release the third quarter macroeconomic "report card" on June 65438+1October 65438+September. Many institutions expect that the consumption growth rate will continue to accelerate in September, reaching about 3%.