The first is the supply of gold, which is mainly divided into gold mining, gold recycling and gold selling by the central bank. Among them, the recycled gold is directly proportional to the gold price, but the change of supply is the most stable and has the least impact on the gold price. Gold mining is the most important source of supply, accounting for about 70%. Limited by industry characteristics and natural conditions, before a gold mine is officially mined, many procedures such as exploration, investment and environmental protection approval will take about seven to ten years, and the gold resources have withered day by day, so the output changes steadily. Even if the price fluctuates greatly in the short term, it will not have much impact on gold mining. During the long-term decline of gold price after 1980, the investment in mining expenditure has been decreasing. In the process of price increase in recent years, the input and corresponding output are also decreasing.
Among the supply factors, the central bank's selling of gold has the most direct and greatest impact on the price. One of the main reasons for the gold bear market in the 20 years after 1980 is the general trend of central banks selling their gold reserves. Central banks still hold about 19% of global gold. European central banks have been selling gold for years. In the late 1990s, the price of gold fell to a multi-year low, and the central bank's selling peaked. The Bank of England sold a lot of gold reserves in areas where the price of gold was at the floor price. During this period, many gold miners are worried that the price will fall further and compete to sign hedging agreements with big banks to sell their later gold at the current price. These big banks borrowed gold from the central bank, sold it in the market, paid the proceeds to the miners, and then returned the gold provided by the miners to the central bank, which further stimulated the wanton selling of gold reserves. Only in recent years, the trend of gold price has been optimistic, and miners have gradually separated from this road. However, with the price rising, the central bank's gold sales also showed an increasing trend. In 2005, stimulated by the sharp rise in gold prices, the official gold sales increased by 465,438+0%, while the world gold supply increased by 65,438+05% year-on-year, reaching 3,859 tons, of which mineral gold and recycled gold increased by 65,438+06% and 65,438+0% respectively.
The gold market is demand-driven, and the influence of demand factors on prices is far greater than supply. The demand for gold can be divided into industrial and consumer demand and investment demand. Industrial and consumer demand reflects the commodity properties of gold and precious metals, among which the demand for jewelry gold accounts for about 75%, which has a far greater impact on the price than industrial demand. For example, religious festivals and weddings in India, the Lunar New Year in China and Christmas in the West are the peak consumption of decoration money. The price of gold also fluctuates with seasons and cycles. However, industrial and consumer demand is limited by the development of the industry and the economic environment, and the demand changes relatively smoothly with little fluctuation. In 2005, industrial gold increased by 2% year on year, while the demand for decorative gold increased by 5% year on year. However, investment demand increased strongly by 26% in 2005. Compared with other demands, investment demand has the greatest price elasticity and the greatest impact on prices. It is the price of gold in the same period.
The monetary attribute of gold makes it have the functions of hedging and investment substitution. The strong growth of gold investment demand in 2005 showed this function incisively and vividly. Let's first look at the promotion of gold prices by rising commodity prices such as crude oil. In 2005, the price of crude oil soared, and the futures of new york light crude oil once reached $70/barrel, which seemed to awaken people's memories of high inflation and low growth caused by the crazy price of crude oil in the 1970s. Gold naturally has the function of maintaining inflation. Under the expectation of rising inflation, gold has become a favorite investment tool for investors, which has been fully reflected in the linkage between crude oil market and gold market. .
At the same time, a factor related to crude oil and gold is the geopolitical situation. As the saying goes, with one shot, there are two thousand gold. Historically, gold has been favored by people as the most reliable means of hedging. Gold is particularly sensitive to political turmoil, wars and other factors, and every war is bound to be accompanied by a sharp rise in the price of gold. It must be mentioned that the political situation in the Middle East has an impact on the price of gold. The Middle East has always been a powder keg of conflicts. American involvement in the Middle East triggered a series of wars. For example, the Gulf War of 199 1 and the war between the United States and Iran in 2003, as well as the market speculation on the possibility of a war between the United States and Iran over the Iranian nuclear issue, directly pushed up the price of gold, while the indirect impact was reflected in crude oil. As the world's major crude oil producing area, the turmoil of geopolitical situation makes the market worry about the danger of interruption of crude oil supply in this area, and the oil price also rises, thus driving the price of gold to rise.
Another important factor affecting the price of gold is the US dollar, which has two main influences on the gold market. First, the dollar is the price mark currency in the international gold market, so it is negatively related to the price of gold. Hypothetically? The price of gold itself has not changed, and the dollar has fallen, so the price of gold has risen. On the other hand, gold is used as an alternative investment tool for dollar assets. The bull market of gold price in recent years and the market's continuous expectation of its big bull market are accompanied by the market's expectation that the US dollar will be weak for a long time. The decline of the dollar will inevitably weaken the attractiveness of dollar assets to investors. The gold market has benefited a lot from this capital transfer. Meanwhile, compared with the dollar asset market, the gold market is a pocket market. Therefore, under the traction of investors' investment preferences, a small part of US dollar assets will flow out and turn to the gold market, thus causing waves.
Article 2 Factors affecting the change of gold price
1, the attitude of central banks towards gold reserves and their trading behavior. The buying and selling of gold reserves directly affects the balance of the gold market, so it has a great influence on the price of gold. 1On May 7, 1999, when the Bank of England announced that it would reduce its gold reserve from 7 15 tons to 300 tons, the price of gold began to fall from $287.65438+$00. On July 6th, the Bank of England auctioned 25 tons of gold for the first time, and then the IMF also indicated that it planned to sell 3 10 tons of gold, which once caused an uproar in the gold market and made the price of gold worse. However, the signing and successful renewal of "washington accord" signed in 1999 greatly influenced the attitudes and trading actions of central banks in various countries, and promoted the recovery of gold prices.
2. The level of inflation rate. Gold has long been a means to prevent inflation. During the period of 1974- 1975, 1978- 1980, due to the serious inflation, the currencies held by people depreciated relatively. It shook people's confidence in the currency, set off a general wave of buying gold, and the price of gold rose rapidly. During this period, gold holders successfully prevented risks. During the period of 1997 when the Asian financial microcomputer was built, the price of gold expressed in local currency rose obviously due to the obvious currency depreciation and price increase in relevant countries or regions.
3. The influence of exchange rate. The influence of exchange rate on gold price can be analyzed from two aspects: on the one hand, gold is usually priced in dollars. If the exchange rate of the US dollar rises, the price of gold expressed in US dollars will naturally fall, and vice versa. On the other hand, the exchange rate also affects the gold price by affecting the capital flow between financial assets. Generally speaking, when the US dollar exchange rate is bullish, the funds invested in US dollar assets will increase sharply, the gold market will be relatively cold, and the price of gold will also fall. On the contrary, gold will be sought after and its price will rise. We can see this clearly from the changing trend of gold price. For example, 1985- 1987, the dollar depreciated by 40% against the Swiss franc, while the price of gold rose from $300 to $500 per ounce. Another example is the recent sharp rise in the price of gold, which has a lot to do with the relative weakening of the US dollar exchange rate.
4. The impact of oil prices. When the oil price is at a low price, people's expectations of inflation are low, and the pressure to buy or invest in gold is reduced, so is the price of gold, and vice versa. The above relationship exists between the price of gold and the price of oil. At present, due to the unstable global economic recovery, the United States has taken military action against Iraq to rebuild Iraq and a series of problems arising from it. The supply of crude oil is facing the risk of shortage, which has prompted the oil price to rise. In March 2005, the futures price of NYMEX crude oil exceeded $57/ton, and the soaring crude oil price triggered people's worries about inflation and supported the rise of gold price.
5. The influence of the stock market. The stock market is a barometer of the economy. When the economy is running well, investors are more willing to make profits by investing in the stock market, so when the stock market rises, the price of gold tends to be weak, while the economy is running poorly. When the stock market falls, the price of gold generally shows an upward trend.
6. Political factors. Gold is considered as the safest investment way to prevent the risk of unrest and war. Tension in the international situation often leads people to snap up gold, and the price of gold also rises accordingly. This characteristic of gold is unmatched by general currency, and it is also an important reason why countries still attach great importance to gold reserves. For example, the American hostage crisis in Iran at the end of 1979 and the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan before February 26th all pushed up the price of gold. By the close of 1980, the price of gold in London was as high as $800 per ounce, and the gold in new york was that day. For another example, the international political situation is still relatively tense recently. Although the Iraq war has ended, the threat of terrorist attacks still exists, and there is also a nuclear conflict between the United States and North Korea, which has pushed up the price of gold to some extent.
Basic characteristics of the future trend of gold price. On the whole, at present, the price of gold has entered a historical stage of stable upward fluctuation, and it is unlikely that the long-term price of gold will fall sharply. From 65438 to 0999, the price of gold dropped sharply to $254 per ounce, which once caused panic in the international community. Judging from the current situation, it is unlikely that the price of gold will fall to the low of 1999 for a long time to come.
First of all, due to the decline of gold production in the future, it is difficult to see an obvious oversupply of gold. World gold production has also entered the trend of negative growth year after year. Gold producers in the United States and Canada are facing a bleak year of capital shortage, layoffs and asset sales. Of course, rising gold prices will also prompt gold enterprises to increase production. In addition, the manufacturing industry, electronics industry and jewelry industry have controlled the selling of gold, and gold has the conditions for multiple investment choices.
Secondly, the international political turmoil and the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis have made the growth of gold investment demand a new bright spot in gold consumption. In recent years, the volatility of US stocks is fierce, coupled with the depreciation of the US dollar, a large amount of funds have been withdrawn from US stocks and foreign exchange markets and transferred to the gold market. The value-preserving and hedging function of gold is once again favored by people. In order to preserve the value, investors from all over the world have increased their purchases of gold, which has changed the situation that gold investment has been deserted in recent years and made the price of gold climb higher and higher. The gold market is only a small part of the global financial market, but it is a refuge for investors who tend to be "hard assets" during the global turmoil, which makes international hot money choose the gold market.