Today, Mr. Jack will take you to analyze the development and evolution of Aunt Qian's business model and its verification under the epidemic situation from three angles: qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis and practical verification, and discuss the possible trends in the future.
First, the development and evolution of Qian Aunt's business model
Qian Dama, founded on 20 12, is a chain brand of community fresh food under Guangzhou Qian Dama Agricultural Products Co., Ltd., focusing on the community fresh food market, dealing in about 500 categories of meat, vegetables, cooked food and aquatic products, with the business philosophy of "no overnight meat". By the end of 20 19, "Qian Dama" was mainly located in Guangdong, with more than 1700 stores nationwide, making it a giant in the fresh food industry in South China.
1, qualitative analysis. To analyze whether an enterprise's business model works, we face the following problems:
Who is the target customer? What are the customer's needs (benefits/difficulties)?
(2) What value proposition (product/service) does the enterprise provide to customers?
(3) What channels are used to deliver value? What is the relationship with customers? Customers are willing to pay for this?
(4) What core resources does the enterprise have (which can be effectively controlled)? Which partners? What are the key activities? How much will it cost?
(5) Is the benefit (the customer pays the bill) greater than the cost?
From the very beginning, Aunt Qian was positioned as a community fresh convenience store, a clean and tidy store, which was different from the traditional dirty farmer's market. The distance from consumers is not more than 500 meters, which is different from the long-distance large supermarket; In addition, Aunt Qian's step-by-step preferential model meets the different demands of community customers for freshness, convenience and cheapness. Aunt Qian's value proposition is "no overnight meat" and the goal is zero inventory, which leads to his biggest challenge is loss. Therefore, on the basis of meeting the daily needs of customers, "Qian Aunt" strictly controls the category at 500 SKU；; ; Obtain bargaining power through purchasing and supply chain management to ensure fresh vegetables and competitive prices; By improving the data system, help stores automatically place orders and reduce the daily discount ratio of goods. Through these measures, "Aunt Qian" has gradually achieved the goal of "making profits at the store first and then at the headquarters". At present, the single-store investment return period of Qian Dama is controlled at 1.7 years.
2. Quantitative analysis. On the basis of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, we can understand the logic behind business decisions and how to design the realization path.
The purpose of an enterprise is to pursue profits, which requires sustained business growth and profits. However, in the process of development, enterprises encounter various external and internal challenges, resulting in increasing business, constant profits and losses, and enterprises are constantly adjusting and adapting. So, how to adjust is the most appropriate? Judging from the operating results, the result of adjustment: the adjusted income/cost is better than that before adjustment.
Namely:
Enterprises have different choices, and each choice will bring corresponding costs. Let's see how Aunt Qian chooses. Aunt Qian's business process: customer-store-supply chain-procurement, as follows:
Red represents revenue, black represents cost, green represents positive impact, and purple represents negative impact.
Aunt Qian's initial business model was direct sales. 20 15 With the promotion of brand awareness, Aunt Qian began to choose franchisees. Due to the continuous expansion of franchisees, Aunt Qian's income from selling vegetables has increased, as well as the income from joining fees and store decoration. The increase in the number of purchases has given Qian Ayi greater bargaining power and reduced the procurement cost of meat and vegetables. These changes have increased Aunt Qian's income and profit. In terms of investment, Qian Aunt increased the construction of IT system, aiming at helping the store to standardize its operation and improve its operational efficiency; Orders are placed automatically through the system, which reduces the loss caused by step discount. Subsidies to ensure franchisees' profits, as well as the increase in capital costs caused by the adoption of a three-day accounting period to obtain high-quality meat dishes. All these have increased the cost of Aunt Qian.
Aunt Qian's introduction of franchisees can bring rapid business growth, but IT investment is huge. Therefore, Aunt Qian adopted light capital leverage, introduced A and B rounds of investment in 20 15 and 20 17, and adopted the strategic loss model of "franchisees gain, while headquarters loses", and invested a lot of money in the capacity building of core resources, focusing on IT system construction, standardized operation and improvement of store operation efficiency. 20 18 introduced round c investment to further upgrade and improve the system, and at the same time subsidized franchisees to ensure franchisees' profits and prepare for the next expansion. According to public information, as of 20 19, 90% of franchisees were profitable, and Aunt Qian's headquarters began to make profits that year, becoming one of the few chain fresh-keeping enterprises in the fresh-keeping field with an overall profit of less than 1%.
3. Actual verification. There are qualitative analysis, quantitative support, and finally practical verification.
Testing whether a model is established depends not only on whether it can make money, but also on whether it can continue to make money. The current epidemic environment is a good opportunity to test the adaptability of Qian Ayi's business model. Aunt Qian official website showed that 102 of Aunt Qian's 1700 stores did not close during the Spring Festival, and 1 12 stores opened on the sixth day, which has basically been opened and resumed business. On February 7, Aunt Qian recruited people who were temporarily closed from the society; On February 14, investment was started, including South China, East China, Central China, Hong Kong and Changsha. Aunt Qian began to expand in an orderly way as planned.
Aunt Qian, what changes have taken place in the business model under the epidemic? What adjustments have been made? First of all, Aunt Qian faces great challenges in cost. First, health and epidemic prevention and transportation costs have increased. Aunt Qian has taken protective measures such as increasing disinfection to ensure food hygiene and transportation safety. The second is the challenge of purchasing volume and supply chain. In the short term, it is necessary to purchase and deliver several times more meat and vegetables than usual, and the supply chain has been verified. Secondly, in terms of business development, the IT system and supply chain built by Aunt Qian began to play an advantage. The offline transaction volume has decreased, but the online transaction volume has increased. Customers place orders in the online applet in the WeChat group, and the business of getting goods at the store has greatly increased. Because Aunt Qian has the advantage of the last mile, she started a home-based business, and cooperated with third-party channels such as JD.COM Home, Meituan Takeaway, Hungry, Alipay to expand the sales scope. During the Spring Festival, Aunt Qian's overall business increased fivefold, and the order volume increased threefold.
During the epidemic, Aunt Qian's stores, supply chain, procurement and IT system have withstood the test of a large number of businesses and are effective at present. Aunt Qian can grow up against the trend, not by luck, but by full preparation. This is also the source of confidence for Aunt Qian to start investment promotion in South China, East China, Central China, Hong Kong and Changsha on February 14.
20 19 12 The media reported that "Aunt Qian" had completed the D round 10 billion yuan financing. The next step for "Aunt Qian" is to go out of South China and March into East China and Central China. At present, "Qian Aunt" has planned to complete the number of stores from 1700 by the end of 2020. "Aunt Qian" must face corresponding challenges if she wants to achieve her goals.
Challenge 1: Is the current model of "Qian Aunt" in South China feasible in other places?
Can the model of "Qian Aunt" be played well in East China? At present, the "silly radish" represented by the fresh food market in the north is in trouble. The most reliable way for "Aunt Qian" is to carefully pilot it in East China first, and then spread it on a large scale if feasible.
Challenge 2: How to deal with the customer demand of multi-scenario changes?
Ding Dong Shopping in Shanghai and Pupu Supermarket in Fujian focus on urban white-collar workers, emphasizing convenience, quality and the pain of not picking vegetables, and set up a pre-warehouse model. The customer unit price exceeds 50 yuan/order, and the repurchase rate is high. At present, it has been extended to Shenzhen and Shanghai. For "Aunt Qian", how to deal with the needs of urban white-collar customers? In the second half of 20 18, "Aunt Qian" put smart cabinets in more than 20 communities in Guangzhou. Consumers can open smart cabinets after scanning codes to identify themselves. After picking up the goods, they scan the code to pay for the transaction, and the smart cabinet automatically locks. The goods displayed in the smart cabinet are also sold at a discount after 7 pm, and finally given away for free, which is consistent with the store. "Qian Dama" smart cabinets are replenished once a day, and each smart cabinet can create sales of 200-300 yuan every day, which is not particularly ideal. Not long ago, "Qian Aunt" tried to stop the front warehouse and unmanned cabinets, and the signal to the industry was that the front warehouse model might not work for "Qian Aunt".
Challenge 3: In order to improve efficiency, do you need to develop into upstream industries and establish your own meat and vegetable supply base in the future?
Based on the expansion speed of Qian Aunt's store opening, it is assumed that there will be 65,438+0,000 stores, 65,438+0,700 stores, 3,000 stores, 4,200 stores and 5,000 stores in 2065,438+08-2023, and the gross profit and franchise fee income of Qian Aunt will continue to rise, while that of stores will continue to rise. The profit margin gained through bargaining power is getting smaller and smaller. Is it necessary to develop into the upstream industry and establish its own vegetable base or breeding base? This is the choice that "Qian Ayi" faces.
Challenge 4: Store management, mainly the challenge of store risk management and food safety.
If Qian Aunt's business model wants to develop continuously, it is necessary to improve food safety and store risk management. In 20 18, "Qian Dama" opened a store on a large scale 1000. In the first half of 20 19 alone, the number of stores increased by 500, which led to the shrinking of store management standards and bloated internal institutions. The main thing to do now is to rectify internal management. However, on July 4, 20 19, 19, a video of a mouse eating pork in Cuiyi Shijiadian, Foshan, broke out on the Internet, and food safety was placed in front of "Qian Aunt". Store management is one of the challenges faced by "Qian Aunt" before its large-scale expansion.
The business model of "Qian Dama" is successful after preliminary experiments. Whether there will be great development in the next step depends on the expansibility and adaptability of this model. Generally speaking, it takes consumers as the core, conforms to the trend of consumption upgrading and digital economy, and constantly upgrades iteratively to maintain the appropriate flexibility of its business model. At present, the future development of "Aunt Qian" should be optimistic and promising in the fresh market.
Revelation 1: The way to deal with the crisis is to prepare in advance.
Under the current epidemic situation, enterprises will instinctively respond to the crisis, but how to effectively respond is a sign to test whether the enterprise is mature or not. Facing the crisis, enterprises are divided into three categories: prepared, partially prepared and unprepared. The bigger the enterprise, the more important it is to guard against risks and crises. Bill Gates said that Microsoft is only half a year away from bankruptcy forever, and Huawei has a stronger sense of crisis. This epidemic did not see any panic in Huawei. Therefore, Cao once said that living for three months is mainly the enterprise's own business, that is to say, even if the enterprise has no operating income, it must be able to support at least three months.
Enlightenment 2: Re-examine the business model and see the essence clearly.
Can enterprises effectively cope with the crisis? It is necessary for enterprises to master a set of effective methods and tools. When external conditions change, enterprises should adopt appropriate coping strategies and make appropriate adjustments with effective methods and tools.
Revelation 3: think about the business model systematically and think clearly about the logical connection behind the key actions.
The choice of business model needs systematic thinking, and every adjustment is supported by a series of activities. First, every activity is interrelated. Second, every activity has a cost, so we should think clearly about logic and correlation at the thinking level. The step-by-step model is suitable for small companies. For medium and large enterprises, thinking clearly is the most important step to make adjustments, which can not be ignored.
Revelation 3: Choose the right tools and use them in combination.
"Business Canvas" is a proven tool to analyze and solve business model problems. I personally have three experiences when using commercial canvas tools:
(1) It condenses the relevant contents of the whole business model on a canvas, which is convenient for global thinking and system strategy selection.
(2) It can be classified and self-consistent. Just like snowflakes are always divided into hexagons, the "Business Canvas" tool also has this feature, which can be used for consistent analysis from the whole organization to business units, to a certain function, to teams, to individuals, and can be applied in various environments.
(3) It can be used in combination with other commercial tools. It can be combined with PEST, Porter's five-force model, BLM and so on. It can be used quickly and easily.
Of course, each tool has its own boundaries and conditions of use. Zheng Lei, co-founder of Xingyuan Consulting, talked about his views on tools. He thinks Business Canvas is a good tool, but don't enlarge it. Each tool has its own boundaries and conditions of use. What we need to do is to make rational use of it. Only through qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis and verification in practice can the business model be truly meaningful.
The above contents are personal opinions, about business opinions and the use of commercial canvas tools. Welcome to discuss and exchange.