First, the economic situation: the draft mentions that "it is necessary to do a good job in cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies, maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies, make overall plans for the convergence of macro policies this year and next, and keep the economy running in a reasonable range".
Compared with the meeting of the Politburo in April, it clearly emphasized the need to do a good job in cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies. This is consistent with Premier Li Keqiang's previous proposal of "basing on the present, focusing on the long-term, making cross-cycle adjustments to deal with possible cyclical risks". Judging from the July PMI released this time, it is weaker than market expectations and the largest month-on-month decline in history, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy has begun to appear. The average year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the second quarter was 5.5%, which was lower than the potential economic growth rate of 5.7% estimated by the central bank's research group.
At the meeting of the Politburo in April, it was put forward that "the window period of steady growth with less pressure", "the economic data of the first quarter should be treated dialectically" and "the policy should not take a sharp turn", but this time there was no such statement. In contrast, we believe that the current government is more cautious about economic recovery.
No longer mention "less pressure for steady growth", indicating that the importance of steady growth in policy objectives has improved.
At the central bank level, the central bank deleted "no sharp turn" at the regular meeting in the first quarter and continued to delete it in the second quarter. The Politburo meeting also deleted "no sharp turn", which can basically be understood as the problem of no "turn". Long-term acceptance of the current policy interest rate (30-35bp lower than before the epidemic, or even lower), and acceptance of the "low interest rate era" (ten-year national debt is below 3% for a long time).
The second is macro-policy: the meeting proposed that "active fiscal policy should enhance policy effectiveness, firmly grasp the bottom line of" three guarantees "at the grassroots level, reasonably grasp the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance, and promote the formation of physical workload at the end of this year and early next year." ?
Judging from the progress of revenue and expenditure, in the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 59.3%, faster than the pace of the past few years, but the general public budget expenditure was only 48.6%, which was significantly slower than 53.2% in 20 18 and 52.5% in 20 19. This also makes the progress difference of fiscal revenue and expenditure reach 10.7 percentage points. At the same time, the issuance of special bonds was obviously slow in the first half of the year. By the end of July, the completion of the issuance of special bonds was around 35%, and the remaining 2.3 trillion special bonds were waiting to be issued.
On the whole, this year's financial progress is somewhat backward compared with previous years, but it can also form a physical workload at the end of this year and early next year to support a smooth economic transition. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the issuance of special government bonds is expected to accelerate, infrastructure will support the economy, and both quality and quantity will be paid equal attention to.
Weekly adjustment has different meanings at different levels. At the level of the central bank, it mainly refers to the basic matching between the growth rate of social integration and economic growth (Sun Guofeng), which means that it is difficult to significantly improve the growth rate of social integration. At the Politburo level, it is more complicated, which can generally be understood as: smoothing policies to smooth the economy; It also includes focusing on long-term issues and considering the significance of current policies. So what will the economy be like next year? The probability of zero or negative export growth rate. If domestic demand fails this year, the economy will maintain 5% next year.
Third, the draft emphasizes that "a prudent monetary policy should maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity to help small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries continue to recover." Compared with the statement at the Politburo meeting in April that "a prudent monetary policy should maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy, key areas and weak links", the policy further emphasizes the support for SMEs. Continue to emphasize that "monetary policy maintains a reasonable and sufficient liquidity".
The word "liquidity" is a cliche at the central bank level, but at the Politburo level, it only existed in March-April last year and April this year. At other times, there is basically no liquidity, because the liquidity point is too fine. The Politburo has put special emphasis on "liquidity" this time, so we can understand the logic of the comprehensive RRR interest rate cut and the recent three-month cash deposit of the central bank+30 billion OMO.
Fourth, monetary policy: we should enhance the autonomy of macro-policies.
This is a new formulation at the Politburo level. A high probability means not looking at the Fed, and at the same time buffering the differences between Chinese and American monetary policies through the exchange rate. In other words, if China's economic growth really goes down in the second half of the year (under export or real estate), then even if the Fed tightens, we can completely relax (reduce RRR and cut interest rates).
China's economic cycle is about three quarters ahead of that of the United States, and the pace of monetary policy between China and the United States is also different. In the second half of the year, the United States will shift from recovery to overheating, and the Federal Reserve is guiding the expectation, time and intensity of the monetary policy shift. At the FOMC meeting on interest rates in July, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that the economic recovery had made "progress" and its policy turned to hawks to prepare for reducing the overall direction of debt purchase.
The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will have an impact on China through exchange rate, capital flow and other channels. However, China's economic fundamentals are still resilient, and the spread of Sino-US 10-year government bonds is at a high level, and the risks are generally controllable. Monetary policy should be independent and "self-centered".
Fifth, inflation+double carbon: the draft mentions "doing a good job in ensuring the supply of bulk commodities and price stability" and "correcting sports' carbon reduction". Before "promoting the peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality in an orderly manner", the words "overall planning" were added, and at the same time, the words "putting forward the action plan for peak carbon dioxide emission before 2030 as soon as possible and adhering to a national chess game" were added, indicating that the situation of water control in Kowloon by various ministries and localities may change. It also adds "establish first and then break", which means to establish a new energy resource system first, and then break the old one;
In March, 20021year, the state grid released the action plan for carbon dioxide emission peak. It said it would speed up power grid construction. The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" power grid will invest about 2.4 trillion yuan to build a strong smart grid to ensure that new energy is connected to the grid in time. We will strengthen the construction of power transmission channels, with an inter-provincial transmission capacity of 230 million kilowatts and a clean energy transmission ratio of 43%, so as to realize the optimal allocation of national resources.
In July, 20021,the national carbon emission trading market was officially opened. The traded product in the carbon market is carbon emission rights. Under the mechanism of allocating carbon emissions, some enterprises lack quotas, some enterprises can not use them up, some enterprises can create quotas, and some buy and sell, thus forming a carbon trading market. The opening of carbon emissions trading market will transform social costs into enterprise costs, which will greatly mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises to reduce emissions.
Sixth, expanding domestic demand: the draft mentions "tapping the potential of the domestic market, supporting the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, and accelerating the penetration of county and rural e-commerce systems and express logistics distribution systems".
In the first half of this year, economic growth mainly depended on external demand, and domestic consumption recovered slowly. As can be seen from the data, the average growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first half of the year was 4.4%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of about 8% before the epidemic. Moreover, consumption also showed a "K" type differentiation, and domestic luxury consumption remained bright in the first half of the year. For example, in the first half of the year, the consumption of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 6.2% year-on-year, which was higher than the average. At the same time, the sales of luxury cars are also significantly better than those of non-luxury cars.
Seventh, high-quality development: the draft attaches great importance to science and technology. According to the draft, it is necessary to "actively promote scientific and technological self-reliance", "enhance scientific and technological innovation and the resilience of industrial chain supply chain, strengthen basic research, promote applied research, carry out special actions to strengthen chains, speed up the solution of" bottlenecks "and develop specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises".
In particular, it is mentioned that the supervision system for overseas listing should be improved. In addition to the previous "Didi incident", the recent supervision of educational institutions has led to a substantial adjustment of the education sector, further causing the market to distrust the relevant sectors and leading to other sectors. In the follow-up, it is necessary to conduct expected management of policies, avoid one size fits all, and give full play to the role of capital markets in serving the real economy.
Eighth, emphasize "the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations".
Force rental housing and new housing reform; ?
Ninth, the Politburo meeting emphasized that "we should do a good job in ensuring people's livelihood and safe production, persist in consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively connecting with rural revitalization, strengthen employment services for college graduates, unblock employment channels for migrant workers, and improve the protection of workers' rights and interests for flexible employees." .
Attach great importance to the phenomenon of K-type economic recovery: 1) Large, medium and small enterprises have two worlds of ice and fire, and the living environment of small and micro enterprises has deteriorated. In July, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 565,438+0.7%, 50.0% and 47.8% respectively. 2) The rising upstream cost squeezes the manufacturing industry in the middle and lower reaches. During June-June, the two-year compound growth rates of the profits of the extractive industry and the manufacturing industry in the upper, middle and lower reaches were 17.4%, 30. 1%, 20.3% and 3.4% respectively. 3) The characteristics of unemployment recovery are obvious. The index of manufacturing and non-manufacturing employees is still below the critical value. 1The unemployment rate of urban youth aged 6-24 was 15.4%, which was 1.6 percentage points higher than last month, among which the unemployment rate of junior college students aged 20-24 and above was higher. 4) The gap between residents' income and wealth is widening, the poor are deflating and the rich are inflating. In the first half of the year, the average per capita disposable income of residents increased by 7.4% in two years, and the average real growth in two years was 5.2%, both lower than the same period last year.
Tenth, promote fertility. The meeting pointed out: "implement the' three-child' birth policy and improve supporting policies such as birth, parenting and education"?
The implementation of the three-child birth policy and supporting measures is conducive to maintaining a moderate population and labor scale in the future, giving full play to the basic, overall and strategic role of population factors, and providing effective human capital support and domestic demand support for high-quality development. At the same time, it is also an important measure to protect people's livelihood to adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation" and rectify the education and training industry.
Conclusion:
1. At present, it is unlikely that monetary policy will be tightened in the second half of the year, and the bond market can continue to participate. According to the current policy interest rate benchmark, the yield of ten-year treasury bonds is at a reasonable level of 2.8-2.9%; It is possible to repeat 2065438+June-August 2006, that is, the market will produce a new round of positive feedback cycle of "yield down-buying-yield down";
2. According to the potential interest rate cut in the second half of the year, the reasonable level of the bond market is lower than 2.8-2.9%, and 2.7% can be seen.
3. Risk-free interest rate will definitely continue to decline. This is undoubtedly a long-term positive for the stock market, especially for growth stocks. Import substitution and manufacturing upgrading, such as new energy and carbon neutrality. These sectors are in line with the policy direction and long-term cash flow is guaranteed. With a lower risk-free interest rate, it will naturally have a good performance.