In the past year, risks and benefits coexisted. On the one hand, gold continues to skyrocket, and on the other hand, the stock market plummets; On the one hand, it is a surprisingly hot collection, and on the other hand, it is a temporary scenery of the bond market ... This year, every kind of investment has some people happy and some people worry.
In the Year of the Rabbit, fighting inflation will be the primary goal for every investor to challenge himself and gain profits. Anti-inflation, maintaining and increasing value; Fighting inflation is interesting.
Stocks: Limited downside, be wary of high valuation.
When someone shouted "2700 points is the absolute bottom", the stock index successfully broke through the position of 2700 points and successfully fell for several days. In the new year, investors are full of tears and ask experts how to solve the problem. The experts' answers are "I don't know".
Most of the opinions of comprehensive brokers only mean "limited downside" and "no need to be overly pessimistic". CICC's latest A-share investment strategy weekly report holds that the macro-control in 20 1 1 year will be "slow in the morning" rather than "urgent in the evening". Investors need not be overly pessimistic about the market index, but they still need to be cautious about some small and medium-sized stocks and sub-new shares that are still at high valuations. According to the report, the stock market is expected to rebound if the financial tension in the market is eased in the future.
Citic Securities said in the weekly A-share market strategy report that A-shares have reached the bottom line of value. Analysts believe that the lowest hourly valuation of the A-share market in 2008 near 1700 is 14 to 15 times the price-earnings ratio, and the market valuation level near 20 10 is also in this position. Every time there are various pessimistic expectations in the market, it often means that the bottom of the market is forming. At present, it is near this level. Although there are many pessimistic expectations near the bottom of the market, it is often the bottom of the market.
CICC said that in the next few years, small and medium-sized stocks will become the main force of market expansion. Regardless of the degree of valuation differentiation or the degree of position allocation differentiation of institutional funds, the investment model of "abandoning big and grasping small" is close to the limit level. CICC reminds investors that the idea that systemic risks can be avoided by grasping individual stocks will be quite dangerous this year. This year, the valuation of each sector will have a convergence trend. The valuation regression process of small and medium-sized stocks as a whole may have just begun. In addition to stocks with strong profit growth and theme cashing, investors can continue to reduce the allocation of these stocks by reducing their positions every time they rebound.
To lay out the post-holiday market, CITIC Securities suggested: First, pay attention to the cyclical sectors with low valuation, safe bottom line and benefiting from the rising demand in the coming spring, such as coal, steel, construction and real estate. The second is to explore structural opportunities in the adjustment of individual stocks. Traditional high-growth areas such as real estate, machinery, automobiles and household appliances may exceed the expectations of the annual report, and emerging high-growth areas such as electronics, communications, media, computers and commerce may be highly allocated. The third is to continue to pay attention to the top ten growth areas in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and seize the long-term allocation opportunities that have fallen out.
Gold: 20 1 1 rising with inflation is still worth seeing.
Gold shines brilliantly at 20 10, and the price has climbed all the way to record highs, because it is regarded as a good anti-inflation product. Although gold has entered the sideways consolidation stage since June last year 165438+ 10, and it has also shown a continuous downward trend since June 65438+ 10 this year, the negative news has not affected some market participants' long-term optimism about gold.
Analysts in Yinlv.com pointed out that although the short-term dollar has strengthened due to safe-haven funds and the so-called favorable economic data in the United States, gold has been suppressed to some extent, but with the emergence of inflation in the United States, the price of gold will be difficult to suppress. For the future gold price, adhere to the long-term optimistic view.
He said that the steady appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is enough to arouse the interest of hot money. In the case of rising inflation, the increase in interest has limited impact on the savings structure. Due to the fiscal austerity, there have been many strikes and protests in Europe, and inflation may be able to use the popular "money illusion" to solve the current predicament. Therefore, the quantitative easing policy including the United States will not change, and global inflation will be fully reflected in the next 2-3 years. So it is too arbitrary to say that inflation peaked in the first half of this year. For investors, the current high inflation has put great pressure on them, and they have to take corresponding measures to slow down the shrinking of wealth. This is also an important reason why financial market speculation is still prevalent during the downturn. At the same time, some physical products such as precious metals have become essential varieties for many long-term investors.
Some market participants also predict that the price of gold will continue to rise at 20 1 1. Gold rose by more than 25% at 20 10 due to the decline of real interest rate in the United States. Analysts predict that 20 1 1 the United States will still maintain a low interest rate environment, especially after the United States resumes its quantitative easing policy, the price of gold will continue to climb at 20 1 1. From the current fundamentals, the coexistence of good news and bad news has not changed. With the gradual emergence of economic recovery and long-term inflation, the price of gold will remain stable and continue to rise. However, judging from the current trend, the volatile market may last for some time, and as far as the current situation is concerned, it may exceed two months.
However, on the other hand, analysts also reminded gold investors to be careful to prepare for the peak of 20 12 gold price, and suggested that zero-cost protection measures should be implemented for downside risks in the expected upward market of 20 1 1.
Cash: It is very important to pay attention to short-term financial deposits.
In addition to investment funds and the stock market, it is also necessary to make full use of the liquidity at hand for financial management. Some banks' short-term financial management products deserve attention. While ensuring cash flow, try to preserve and increase value. In this regard, Yinlv.com analysts said that the term of 20 1 1 year's wealth management products will be mainly in the short and medium term.
In fact, the number of short-term wealth management products issued by banks has also increased significantly recently. According to statistics, 201012.30-20115.00, the bank * * * issued short-term wealth management products with a maturity of less than 3 months 104; 65438+1October 6 ~ 65438+1October 12, issued by the bank 126, with an increase of more than 20%. In addition, according to the data of silver rate. Com, 1-3 months, the expected annualized rate of return of bank wealth management products is mostly between 2.5% and 4.0%, and 1.5%-3.2%. At present, the deposit interest rate of RMB is 0.36%, and the annual interest rate for three months is 2.25%. From this perspective, if short-term wealth management products can meet expectations, the income will be much higher than the deposit interest rate.
In 20 1 1 year, the whole country will enter the interest rate increase cycle, in which short-term wealth management products are more popular in the market. A number of financial planners said that short-term wealth management products can share the changes in interest rate adjustment income during the interest rate hike cycle, and the allocation of short-term bank wealth management products can be appropriately increased. Investors should pay attention to structured products and investment trust products in addition to sound financial products. These two types of products have relatively high expected returns and can outperform inflation. But there are also risks of zero income and negative income.
In addition, insiders also said that the circulation of 20 1 1 bonds and money market products will continue to rise steadily, and raising interest rates will also become an important weight for bonds and money market products. Once the interest rate is raised again, the yield of such products can be increased accordingly. If credit products are still under the control of 20 1 1 and the positive impact of interest rate increase, bonds and money market products may continue to become the mainstream of bank wealth management products.
However, bank financial planners also reminded investors not to blindly invest in fighting inflation. Although negative interest rates are getting worse, as the most basic liquidity guarantee, necessary deposits are still essential.
Collectibles: The market is booming.
From ancient calligraphy and painting to jade articles, from ancient artifacts to tea wine in daily life ... everything with scarcity or appreciation potential seems to have been "fried" by hot money for many rounds.
The collectible market of 20 10 is also booming. "There are 83 auction enterprises and 499 auctions, with a total turnover of194.58 million yuan, with an increase of 88% year-on-year ..." This is a set of data describing the grand occasion of Beijing art auction market last year. Some people think that before the bubble burst, it is risky to participate in investment at this time.
However, some insiders believe that the pricing mechanism of China art market is gradually normalizing, and the pattern of minority collection is gradually taking shape. Not only is there no bubble in the market, but the current transaction price still cannot reflect the true value of works of art.
After all, the high-risk collectible market is only suitable for some people. Insiders reminded that this industry is still "unfamiliar". Even people who want to participate in it need a lot of accumulation and learning to become a person who knows how to collect.
Looking specifically at the collectible market of 20 1 1, Liu Xinhui, the chief auctioneer of Poly Auction, thinks that besides traditional calligraphy and painting, rare collections also have room for appreciation, such as Shoushan, Duanyan and She Yan. Due to the scarcity of pit resources, the auction price will increase, and it is a potential blue chip in the market. In terms of jade collection, Wang Shiqi, director and professor of Peking University Jewelry and Jade Identification and Testing Center, said earlier that the price increase dominated by jade last year brought fire to the markets of Huang Longyu, Kunlun jade and even Bian Shi. This year, due to its excellent appearance and color, the price of Huang Longyu still has room to rise. However, due to Bian Shi's large reserves, the soaring price is only a short-term factor. Old jade species are still the main force of price increase, but buyers need good eyesight, and there should be no more "missing" mentality. The auction price of tea and wine has also soared since last year. According to Wu Xiduan, Secretary General of China Tea Circulation Association, there are more and more customers collecting black tea. In terms of Tibetan wine, Moutai, the national wine, has also received much attention from the market recently. In addition, in terms of folk collections, it is understood that amber is expected to become a hot spot in folk collections this year after old cameras, projectors and picture books won higher auction prices last year. (Wei Xiayi)