In recent years, with the economic and social development and the improvement of people's living standards, the nutritional value and health care and medicinal functions of walnuts have been further recognized and valued by the world. The demand for walnuts in domestic and foreign markets is increasing day by day, and the prices of walnut nuts and their processed products are rising year after year. Over the years, the average price of walnuts in the domestic market was 1998/kg in 6 yuan, 7-8 yuan/kg in 2000, 8- 10 yuan/kg in 8 yuan in 2006 and 0-0/4 yuan/kg in 2005. It can be seen from the above data that the price of walnuts in the domestic market has been on the rise for more than ten years, while the market price of high-quality walnuts is higher than that of ordinary walnuts, reaching 30 ~ 40 yuan per kilogram, which drives the price of grafted seedlings of walnut varieties as high as per plant 10 ~ 20 yuan. People may wonder whether the price of walnuts will rise next year.

"Value determines price. According to the relationship between market supply and demand, prices fluctuate around value. " The reason for the increase in the price of walnuts is naturally that demand exceeds supply. Compared with other fruit trees, the market prices of apples, pears, grapes and peaches have only increased by a few percent in the past ten years (apples also experienced a low period of national price decline at the end of last century), while the prices of walnuts have increased by 2-3 times, which is a standout. Compared with the current international market, the price of American walnut nuts is $65,438 +0.7 yuan (equivalent to RMB 1 1.5 yuan) per kilogram, and that of walnut kernels is $9 (equivalent to RMB 60 yuan). Although there is a certain gap between the quality of walnut products in China and the international market, the price of walnut in the domestic market has been significantly higher than that in the international market. At present, a small part of walnuts produced in China are exported, mainly for the domestic consumer market, and are produced and sold by themselves.

The current market price of walnuts in China is already at a high price, and there is little room for further increase. The high price is entirely due to the lack of walnuts and nuts. According to the report on the development of walnut industry in China (1949 ~ 2007), in 2007, the total planting area of walnuts in China exceeded 2 million hectares, the annual output of nuts exceeded 500,000 tons, and the per capita consumption was only 0.38 kg. The per capita consumption of developed countries and regions in the world is 1 ~ 1.5 kg. Excellent grafted walnuts enter the fruiting period in 4 ~ 5 years. It can be predicted that in the next 2 ~ 3 years, China's walnuts will enter the full fruit stage in a large area, with a substantial increase in output, an increase in market supply and a change in the relationship between supply and demand. Walnut prices should enter a stable or slightly fluctuating stage. Walnut growers should not only hope that the price of walnuts will be higher, so that walnuts will become high-end luxury goods and scare off some consumers.

Second, the ecological benefits of walnuts can not be ignored.

At present, the great development of walnut industry takes into account the ecological benefits of walnut. Due to the state's emphasis on ecology, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, in recent years, the input and support for returning farmland to forests, afforestation and poverty alleviation and development projects have increased. Walnut trees have deep roots and flourishing leaves. Planting in hilly areas can not only increase farmers' income, but also prevent soil erosion, conserve water and improve the environment. Walnut has high nutritional value and wide uses. The market price is rising year by year, and the people's enthusiasm for planting walnuts is unprecedented. Therefore, in recent years, walnut has become an important tree species for agricultural industrial structure adjustment and forestry ecological construction, and walnut industry has become an important pillar industry of rural economy in some areas.

Third, the benefit of walnut planting is currently at a low level.

Although the current market price of walnuts is relatively high, and the majority of growers expect to obtain higher planting benefits, the current walnut industry is facing a situation of low average yield and low overall planting benefits. According to the report on the development of walnut industry in China (1949 ~ 2007), the average yield per plant is only about 1.5kg, and the yield per mu is less than 20kg. In August 2009, the first walnut conference in Shandong Province was held in Jinan. According to the conference data, in 2008, the average yield per mu of walnuts in Shandong Province was 70 kg. Dongping County and Licheng District of Ji 'nan City are the "Hometown of Walnuts in China" named by the State Forestry Administration. The average yield of walnut orchard in Dongping county is 6 1 kg, and that in Licheng district is 82 kg. The sales income of walnuts per mu is still less than 2000 yuan, which is only equivalent to 1/2 ~ 1 of the average sales income of apples, pears, grapes and peaches. Once the market price of walnuts drops, the planting benefit will be lower. There are many reasons for low yield and low efficiency of walnut, including backward application varieties, weak understanding, poor site conditions, low technical level and less material input.

Fourthly, at present, the yield of walnut is far from high.

The criterion for selecting high-yield walnut varieties is that the kernel yield per square meter of crown projection area is more than 150g, which is equivalent to more than 180kg of nuts per mu. For example, Yuanfeng, a fine variety of thin-skinned walnut, produces 385-400 grams of kernels and 270 grams of fragrant bells per square meter of crown projection area. Late-born walnuts begin to bear fruit in 6 ~ 8 years, and grafted trees bear fruit in 4 ~ 5 years. Take the cultivation experiment in shandong institute of pomology as an example. In the mid-1970s, Yuanfeng early-fruiting walnut was grafted with 13-year-old late-fruiting walnut. After five years, the yield of nuts per mu was more than150kg, which was an early grafting in China with good results. In the early 1980s, grafted seedlings of new early-fruiting walnut varieties were used to carry out early-high yield cultivation experiments of walnut in close planting. After five years, the yield of nuts per mu is 74 kg, 1.84 kg, but it is difficult to maintain high-density planting for a long time. The yield per mu calculated by the yield per plant of walnut is higher. The maximum yield of walnut planted by the weir in Longwangyu Village, Pingyin County, Shandong Province in 40 years is 100 kilograms, which is equivalent to more than 500 kilograms by simple theoretical calculation. With the efforts of researchers and cultivators, with the progress of cultivation technology, it is entirely possible to comprehensively improve the average yield of existing walnuts, achieve overall high yield and create higher yield per unit area.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) Market prospect of walnut

China has a large population and a huge consumer market. At present, the annual per capita consumption of walnuts in China is only 0.38 kg, while that in developed countries and regions is 1 ~ 1.5 kg. If the average yield per mu of walnuts in China is raised to 60 kg, the annual per capita consumption will basically reach the level of some developed countries and regions, and the average yield per mu will be raised to 1.20 kg, and the annual per capita consumption will be 2.38 kg, which is equivalent to China people eating 1 walnut every day. It can be seen that the domestic consumption market is very large, but the current walnut productivity level in China only accounts for 1/6 of this data. Walnut is a kind of healthy food with high nutritional value. With the strengthening of China's national strength, the improvement of people's living standards and the change of diet structure, people gradually understand walnut food, and the sales of walnuts in China will increase year by year. When walnuts are processed into drinks and health foods, the value will be higher and the social benefits will be more prominent. For example, Jinan Lu Hua Food Co., Ltd., one of the top ten forestry enterprises in Shandong Province, processes walnuts 1 0.3 million tons annually and produces walnut oil of 70 million yuan, which extends the industrial chain of walnuts and increases the added value of products1times.

To sum up, at present, China's walnut industry is facing a situation of considerable scale, high fruit price, low average yield and low overall planting efficiency. In the future, it is necessary to maintain the existing area stably, popularize and select excellent varieties (such as Yuanfeng, Xiangling, Qing Xiang, Liaohe series and Xifu series), adopt suitable cultivation models, improve management concepts, strengthen scientific management, and pay attention to increasing the application of base fertilizer, saving water, shaping and pruning. Only by focusing on improving the average yield, giving consideration to fruit sales and processing, and improving the utilization efficiency of forest resources and land resources can we give full play to the economic, ecological and social benefits of walnuts and promote the healthy, stable and harmonious development of walnut industry.