However, the data does not support the view that the property market is picking up. According to the monitoring data of China Index Academy, the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities decreased by 7.3% in February. At the same time, Ke Rui data show that in February, the contracted sales of TOP 100 real estate enterprises reached 447 billion yuan, down 15.6% year-on-year.
The reporter of China Business Daily noticed that the fine-tuning of the property market regulation policies in Heze, Guangzhou and Qingdao did not cause the ups and downs of the property market, but it also reflected the change of the current real estate regulation thinking-from "one size fits all" and "one interview" to "one city, one policy", and the main responsibility of regulation was devolved from ministries to local governments.
The idea of multi-site supervision has changed.
20 18 12 18 Heze, Shandong Province issued the Notice on Promoting the Renovation of Shantytowns in the City to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, which clearly proposed to cancel the previous restrictions on the transfer of newly purchased houses in the main city and county towns with large housing transactions and great pressure on housing prices, and formally canceled the previous restrictions on the transfer of non-local registered residents after two years of obtaining property certificates. This has also been interpreted by the market as the "looseness" of property market regulation.
It is worth mentioning that just the day after the above notice was issued in Heze, Shandong, Guangzhou issued the Opinions on Improving the Sales Management of Commercial Real Estate Projects, stipulating that land transfer projects before 2065438+March 30, 2007 are not limited to sales targets, but can be sold to individuals. This also means that Guangzhou will no longer implement the policy of "commercial real estate projects shall not be sold to individuals" across the board.
On the evening of February 27th, 2065438+0818, Hengyang issued "On Suspension of Execution &; lt； Notice on standardizing the sales price behavior of new commercial housing in urban areas &; gt； Notice, it is proposed to suspend the implementation of the price limit policy. However, the document was later withdrawn by the government on the grounds that "its influence is contrary to the original intention of the department to release the document".
20 18 12 3 1, Qingdao High-tech Zone issued a document to suspend the implementation of the Detailed Rules for the Sale of Commercial Houses in Qingdao High-tech Zone.
In fact, these cities have fine-tuned the property market regulation policies, and the regulation ideas have changed significantly compared with the past "one size fits all" and "being interviewed".
At the National Conference on Housing and Construction held at the end of last year, Wang, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the policy and classified guidance according to the city, implement the responsibility of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, consolidate the main responsibility of the city, and strengthen market monitoring and evaluation.
The fine-tuning of the above-mentioned urban property market policy is a concrete embodiment of the "one city, one policy" regulation idea of "implementing policies according to the city, guiding by classification and consolidating the main responsibility of the city".
It is worth noting that earlier, many cities also clearly stated in the local two conferences that they would implement "one city, one policy". According to the incomplete statistics of the reporters of the National Business Daily, in June 5438+ 10 this year alone, Henan, Anhui, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Changsha and other places indicated that they would implement "one city, one policy".
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told reporters that the real estate market in different regions, different orders of magnitude and different cities has different characteristics. "One city, one policy" is the embodiment of "policy according to the city, classified guidance, and consolidating the main responsibility of the city", which is more scientific and realistic. The implication is that local governments will gain greater control autonomy according to their actual conditions. But at the same time, local governments also need to bear the responsibility of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations".
The property market will still be based on "stability"
Cancel the sales restriction, loosen the price limit, and suspend the lottery ... Will the property market fully pick up?
"Regulation will continue, it will be relaxed but it will not be released, and the property market will heat up but it will not pick up." Ouyang Jie, senior vice president of Xincheng Holdings, told the reporter of National Business Daily. At the same time, he believes that "housing is not speculation" is still a long-term positioning. Warming up does not mean warming up, relaxing does not mean letting go, and regulation will not quit.
In fact, since it was identified as a pillar industry of the national economy in 2003, the real estate industry has long been regarded as a tool for counter-cyclical adjustment of the economy. No matter in 2008 or 20 14, the real estate industry has become a powerful tool to resist the repeated "subprime mortgage crisis" and economic downside risks by loosening the restrictions on purchases, reducing the down payment ratio and cutting interest rates.
Of course, while successfully coping with economic downside risks through "maintaining the stability of the property market", it is followed by rounds of rapid housing price increases.
At present, China's economic operation is generally stable, but it is characterized by changes in stability and worries. In the fourth quarter of 20 18, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP was 6.4%, which was the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009. As a troika of economic development, the situation of investment, consumption and net export is complex and severe. In 20 18, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets was 5.9%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, and the growth rate has been declining year by year since 2009; The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9% year-on-year, hitting a new low since 2000; The trade surplus was 2.33 trillion yuan, the lowest in the past four years, with a year-on-year increase of negative 18.3%.
Under the complicated and severe economic situation, does it mean that the real estate industry will once again become a counter-cyclical adjustment tool? Will house prices rise again in retaliation as in history?
Many people in the industry held a negative view when interviewed by the National Business Daily, and said that the current thinking of property market regulation has changed, and the history of retaliatory rise in housing prices will be difficult to reproduce, and "stability" will become the main tone of future property market regulation policies.
This year's government work report also pointed out that "better solve the housing problem of the masses, implement the main responsibility of the city, reform and improve the housing market system and security system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."
Since the end of 20 18, the thinking of property market regulation has changed significantly compared with the past. "Stability" is becoming the main tone of the current property market regulation.
For example, Shanghai said at the beginning of the year that it was studying and formulating a long-term mechanism to improve the regulation of the real estate market. It is not an expedient measure to adhere to the position that "houses are for living, not for speculation", nor is it an expedient measure to strictly control high housing prices and high land prices, nor is it an expedient measure to reduce the dependence of economic growth and fiscal revenue on the real estate industry. It is also a firm and unrelenting regulation of the real estate market to achieve the goal of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and market expectations.
Hangzhou, on the other hand, lowered the maximum premium rate from 50% to 30% in the recent land transfer documents. This is also seen as a measure to stabilize housing prices and stabilize expectations.
"Some cities put forward' one city, one policy', which cannot be simply understood as policy loosening or tightening." Yan Yuejin told the reporter of the National Business Daily, "Although the thinking of regulation has changed, the goal is the same, that is, to promote the stable and healthy development of the property market and actively implement the goal of' housing and not speculating'."