(1) The trend of real estate investment shows that macro-control has achieved results

At present, there is a view of "real estate overheating theory", "bubble theory" and "risk theory" that "the previous macro-control has no obvious tightening effect on real estate", based on "the accumulated investment in real estate development from January to June" We believe that to observe whether macro-control measures play a role, we should not look at the economic data in a certain period of time, but at its development and change trend in a long time, and the trend is more important than absolute or relative quantity. It can be clearly seen from Figure 1 that the macro-control measures taken by the state to curb the overheating of fixed assets investment and real estate investment have fully played a role.

(2) The key to judging whether there is a bubble in real estate is whether there is real demand

We believe that the current housing demand is still real demand, and the basis is as follows:

First, from the perspective of potential demand, there are 49 million urban residents in China, and by 22, when the "all-round well-off society" is realized, the urbanization level in China will reach 55-6%, and the urban residents will increase. During this period, about 3-35 million new urban population needs to solve the housing problem. This is to estimate the housing demand of the population in New Zengcheng. On the other hand, the original urban population also needs to improve housing conditions. At the end of 23, the per capita housing area of urban residents in China was 23.8 square meters. According to the experience of the corresponding development level abroad, the speed of housing improvement of urban residents in China in the past, the urbanization process in China and other factors and the current statistical data, it is preliminarily estimated that the per capita housing area of urban residents in China may reach 35 square meters in 22. In other words, the per capita housing area of each urban resident should be increased by more than 1 square meters on the current basis.

Secondly, from the calculation of effective demand, it is not the housing demand of rural migrant workers, but only the demand of urban residents to improve their housing. If it is assumed that 2% of urban families have the demand for improving their housing, and these 2% of urban families who want to improve their housing only want to increase their housing by 2 square meters, then there are 27 million urban families in China, with an increase of 2 square meters each, and the total realistic demand is 54 million square meters. This demand exists objectively, which can be bought now or with the help of housing credit.

thirdly, it must be noted that the real and effective demand includes not only the active demand supported by residents' housing consumption, but also a lot of passive demand generated by urban housing demolition. With the acceleration of urbanization and the intensification of urban transformation, urban house demolition in China has entered a stage of rapid development. The scale of house demolition in various places, especially in economically developed areas, is constantly expanding, showing a rapid growth trend. In 23, the amount of urban house demolition in China was about 14 million square meters, accounting for about 28% of the real estate completed in that year. In October, 23, after the General Office of the State Council issued the Notice on Controlling the Demolition Scale and Regulating the Demolition Behavior, the amount of urban house demolition in China decreased in 24. However, in the future, due to the construction of urban infrastructure, the transformation of old cities and the demolition of dangerous houses, the amount of urban housing demolition will remain large, thus forming a huge demand for real estate.

on the premise of real demand, even if there may be overheating or escape sequence phenomenon in some areas, it cannot be judged that real estate is already a "bubble economy".