Among them, Aimeike is "the king of hyaluronic acid, making more money than Maotai", York has built "an e-cigarette empire of 300 billion yuan in three years", Time Angel is becoming "the first share in invisible braces" with the revenue of 10 times, and Xinyang is "the representative enterprise of Yan value economy", and each enterprise is full of gimmicks.
However, recently, with the new e-cigarette regulatory policy and the return to rationality of the capital market, as well as the lack of self-growth revealed by various companies after the release of financial reports, the market value of the "four outstanding new profiteers" suffered a sharp decline.
Orfila Science and Technology, which just released its financial report, achieved revenue of 65.438+62 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.5%, which only slightly increased its share price by 2%, but failed to pull back to the 47% that fell five days ago. In 20021year, the market values of the three companies all suffered heavy losses, even the market values of Orfila Science and Technology and Aimeike plummeted by nearly 100 billion from the highest point.
After squeezing out the bubble, can fourth sister still tell the myth of getting rich?
In the stock market, there are two sectors that are most loved by investors, one is consumption, and the other is medical care, which is enduring for a long time. The reason is that getting involved in these two industries often means that there are valuations and roes beyond other industries.
According to the stock price statistics on March 26th, Aimeike has a total market value of 85 billion yuan, with a market value of 193. Just before 1 month, in February of 18, Aimeike's share price reached 133 1 yuan, with a market value close to16 billion yuan and a PE (price-earnings ratio) of 336. At present, the total market value of science and technology in Orfila is 65.438+042 billion US dollars, and the market profit is 654.38+0955. The total market value of new oxygen is $65.438+0 billion, and the market profit is 654.38+065.438+077.
This is an amazing valuation in any market. Behind the bubble-like price-earnings ratio given by the capital market, it also stems from extreme optimism about the new consumption areas where the four companies are located.
More and more research and data prove to us that we really live in a value-added society. Economists Daniel Hammermesh and Jeff Bedell conducted an interesting study. A person with below-average appearance earns 9% less per hour. Those who look above average earn 5% more per hour.
This is an era of loving beauty, and appearance anxiety has become a problem for many people at present. Whether it is medical beauty, plastic surgery or electronic cigarettes, it really hits the inherent "addiction" of human nature, and there will be consumer services that meet the needs of users.
Under such demand, Aimeike is the leading enterprise of hyaluronic acid. In view of the demand for skin care, Time Angel is the pioneer of invisible braces in China, while Xinyang has built a medical beauty health platform, linking medical beauty institutions and consumers, and they all cut into the small branch of the medical beauty track accurately. York is more like a trendsetter in the new consumption iteration period. Traditional tobacco has not been greatly innovated in the past hundred years, and young people who smoke need new ways to play cool.
The four companies that took the lead in entering these new consumption fields also gained the advantage of commodity pricing and made their own profiteering stories. According to the latest financial report data, the gross profit of Aimeike, Times Angel, Xinyao and York are 92. 17%, 70.8%, 85% and 42.5% respectively, while the gross profit margin of Kweichow Moutai, a hard currency in the stock market, is only 9 1.3%, and Aimeike's gross profit margin is as high as 98%.
At present, each family has basically achieved the status of the king of the profiteering track. According to the prospectus of Times Angel, the market share of Times Angel is 465,438+0.3%, ranking first; York reached 62%, devouring most of the market share; Aimeike's domestic market share in sodium hyaluronate injection products has reached 14.0%, ranking first in domestic hyaluronic acid; The market share of New Oxygen 20 17 has reached 70% so far, and there are no comparable players in recent years.
The process of creating myths can never be separated from the people who create them.
Some have been in commercial layout for more than ten years. Among them, Time Angel was co-founded in 2003 by Professor Yan Yongnian of department of mechanical engineering, Tsinghua University (known as the "father of 3D printing" in China) and Wang Bangkang, Dean of School of Stomatology, Capital Medical University. As soon as the angel of the times was born, she ran with the aura of "domestic Invisalign".
There are also emerging players. Wang Ying, the founder of York, used to be an executive of Uber, and his team also came from a large Internet company, making e-cigarettes across borders. York has also formulated the "36 1 plan", and through a three-year subsidy of 600 million yuan, it opened 1 10,000 stores. From its establishment in June 20 18 to March 2020, there have been nearly 10000 stores, which is faster and crazier than Ruixing, which created nearly 4000 stores in two years.
Buffett once said, "Investment is like snowballing. The most important thing is to find wet snow and long slopes. " Long slope refers to the industry and track, and wet snow refers to the companies at the top of the industry. So, crazy beauty lovers, angels of the times, York and New Oxygen are such perfect investment targets?
Behind the high gross profit, are the "four outstanding new profiteers" a veritable printing machine?
From the perspective of return on capital, the listing speed and market value performance of "four outstanding new profits" are undoubtedly successful investment targets for investment institutions. The market value of 1 100 million dollars was exchanged for 2.764 billion yuan of new oxygen, the highest market value of 40 billion dollars was exchanged for about 9.5 billion yuan of Orfila Science and Technology, and the highest market value of160 million dollars was exchanged for 3.57 billion yuan of Aimeike. Time Angel will be listed at only149 million yuan.
But from the enterprise itself, limited by product development, technical level and high marketing expenses, it is also eroding the real profitability of each company.
The reason for Orfila's science and technology is not only the influence of the 20 19 ban on the sale of e-cigarettes. Compared with Cui Yimu International in the upstream of the industrial chain, Orfila Science and Technology's income source is too single, mainly for bongs and bombs, and Cui Yimu International also has a large number of To B electronic atomization equipment business; This also resulted in the net interest rate of Orfila Science and Technology being 20%, while the net interest rate of Cui Yimu International was close to 30% in several reporting periods.
It should be said that there is still a gap between the real profitability of Orfila science and technology and the head enterprises. The single product is also related to the low R&D cost of Orfila Science and Technology. 20 19 only accounts for 1.5% of income, and it will be 7.8% in 2020. Although there is an increase, it is only maintained at a low level.
Different from the low R&D expenses of Orfila Science and Technology, Xinyang's R&D expenses have reached more than 65,438+00%, but they are actively reducing R&D expenses in the near future. Xinyang's expense ratio in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 65,438+06.7%, which is lower than that in the first three quarters of 2020.
Instead of working hard on research and development, each company spent a lot of money on marketing and sales expenses. The high promotion cost is also the core reason why the "four outstanding new profiteers" can't achieve high net profit behind high gross profit.
In fiscal year 2020, the sales expenses of Orfila Science and Technology increased by 23.3% to 440 million yuan compared with 360 million yuan in the previous year. Moreover, the massive offline expansion has greatly reduced its online marketing cost, but the heavy asset investment in opening a store has also made the debt ratio of Orfila Science and Technology remain high.
New oxygen is also increasing investment to ensure the growth of users. Last year, marketing expenses increased by 54.5% year-on-year, mainly used for brand building and marketing activities. In 2020, Xinyang has an average sales and marketing expense rate of over 50% in four quarters. Simply put, "advertising" devours most of the company's profits.
And the upcoming angel of the times is also trying to do marketing. According to the prospectus, in the first three quarters of 20 18, 20 19 and 2020, the sales and marketing expenses (expenses) of Time Angel were 8 10/00000 yuan,1230000 yuan and 9 10/00000 yuan, respectively, accounting for the respective proportions.
At present, among the "four outstanding new profiteers", only Aimeike can be called a veritable printing machine, with a revenue of 709 million, a net profit of 440 million and a net interest rate of 62% in 2020.
When will the bubble burst when the P/E ratio remains high?
Sudden policy changes first broke the myth of high market value of Orfila Science and Technology, and also opened the curtain for the market to re-examine the stock price of "four new profiteers".
After 20 19 was unable to sell e-cigarettes online, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported on March 22nd that it planned to supervise new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes with reference to cigarettes. On that day, the share price of Orfila Science and Technology plummeted by 47.84%. Since March 22nd, the share price of Orfila Science and Technology has halved, and its market value has evaporated by over 100 billion in three trading days, which makes people stunned.
The change of share price reflects the market's concern about the development prospect of science and technology in Orfila. Although analysts predict that it is unlikely that the policy will be completely banned or monopolized, it will also make Orfila's large-scale offline investment in science and technology face uncertain returns. Moreover, it is expected that the tax rules for e-cigarettes will be implemented in the future, and e-cigarettes only need to pay 17% value-added tax, which will increase to 56% tobacco-specific tax. The prospect of Orfila's technology is facing an unpredictable situation.
Recently, another company whose share price is halved is Aimeike. On March 25th, it was affected by negative factors such as the resignation of CFO Zhao Shuanghong and the company's large-scale dividend. Aimeike's share price dropped from the previous high point in 700 yuan to 370 yuan. Aimeike's share price staged a roller coaster scene, and its market value evaporated by 79.2 billion yuan.
The new oxygen, which has just released its financial report recently, has not escaped the fate of almost halving its market value. In 2020, the total revenue will increase12.4% year-on-year; However, the expenditure on marketing, R&D and management increased substantially year-on-year, and Xinyang's net profit decreased by 97.24% year-on-year.
After the financial report was released, Xinyao's share price fell by 65,438+06.79% to 65,438+00.01USD. The market value has also shrunk to $654.38+69 million, while $654.38+86.2 million, which is the peak of the stock price on February 7, 20021year.
Angel of the Times, which has just submitted its prospectus and has not yet been listed, is expected to be dominated by market panic and unable to enjoy the high valuation bonus that the other three companies once had. After all, the American dentist unicorn SDC went public and went bankrupt.
The bubbles of "four outstanding new profiteers" burst one after another, largely because the capital market no longer believes that new consumer products and services without technical and brand core barriers can always maintain their extremely high gross profit margin and market share. For example, as competitors such as Huaxi Bio become more and more powerful, beauty lovers can't sell hyaluronic acid for 2000 to 3000 yuan forever as long as it costs 20 to 30 yuan. By the same token, due to the crisscross competition between Times Angel and Invisalign, the price of invisible braces will drop to less than 10,000 yuan with the technological progress in the future, and the high gross profit will not last long.
More importantly, after several years of blindfolded running, the growth of several users has reached the bottleneck. According to the data of the new oxygen white paper, the customer acquisition cost of the new oxygen platform is as high as 400 yuan/person. In order to maintain the growth of ordinary users and paying users, new oxygen needs long-term high marketing investment.
The highlight moment of "four outstanding new profiteers" has passed, and the former demon stocks are also facing the return of value. The future stories of the four great masters need to be rewritten by themselves.
Text | Yang Xiaohe Xue Qiao Technology Planet