In the automobile world, the process from 0 to 1 seems not difficult. Evergrande just proved this point. Original strength can be obtained through purchase, but the process from 1 to 2 is not so easy.

Tesla just had an unremarkable battery day yesterday morning (4: 45 am Beijing time). It is said that the battery with a battery life of one million kilometers is kept secret, and some pragmatic measures are replaced, such as expanding production capacity and increasing battery energy. This action is not as routine as the Markov style that put the rocket into the sky before.

And even so, the old horse said it would take three years to achieve it. The implication is that I will be awesome, but you have to wait.

Everyone is waiting for the old horse to launch a satellite-level action. I didn't expect the old horse to really launch a satellite to delay everyone's satisfaction, so Tesla's share price fell by 8%.

The greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment. There have also been various evaluations, which are roughly divided into two factions.

A school sees big from small. For example, Ma Lao announced that there was no "polar ear" 4680 battery, which increased the energy by five times, while the cost was reduced by 86%. Although it still stays on PPT, the expected value is enough to last until the day of landing, including 25,000 US dollars (about RMB 1.7 million yuan) of low-priced people-friendly products, which is enough for people to wait and see for a while with money.

The other school simply thinks that the surprise given by the old horse is insufficient, and releasing the plan three years in advance is a gimmick rather than a content. Before the press conference, Ma Lao used Twitter to build momentum for Battery Day, which kept everyone's appetite alive. Even the release time is approaching the Champions League final and the World Cup, which makes people relive the chaotic work and rest of a carnival summer, but it is not right after all.

However, considering that traditional car companies have released five-year plans in one breath before, it is not an exaggeration for the old horse to do so. You may think that the press conference is not exciting enough, because you are used to the blockbuster that Ma flies into space. He talks like Marquez, but you are not used to it.

Judging from the content released, Lao Ma failed to produce substantial results, but almost said the slogan of waiting for me for three years, just like the entrepreneurial man postponing the wedding, but the content was still very destructive, especially from which the taste of traditional car companies could be read. Of course, this must be based on the realization of "if".

For example, Musk announced that the battery will be built into the body structure, and this integrated concept will reduce the number of assembled parts (about 370). In August, social media revealed that the die casting machine of Tesla's factory in fremont had been put in place, specifically for Model? Y-tail casting preparation, this move can make the tail shape as a whole, and the number of parts is reduced from 70 to 1 piece, which is far from black technology, but it tastes like Toyota lean production.

In fact, the main purpose of this conference is to reduce costs and increase production capacity, but it is not achieved overnight. As a result, Ma Lao's Battery Day was labeled as boring, which in turn affected the supplier's share price. However, compared with continuing to push up the stock price, it is estimated that what the old horse wants is how to prop up the current stock price.

Wall Street analysts have said that Tesla is a dangerous stock because it doesn't have such a big basic disk to support this astronomical market value. Although the market value of traditional car companies is only a fraction of that of Tesla, the sales volume is dozens of times.

For several months, we have been paying attention to and guessing where the ceiling of Tesla's market value is. At the beginning of the month, after Tesla's staged peak, lightning fell, which seems to explain some problems.

The market value can't beat traditional car companies, but the sales volume can. The old horse certainly knows this, but it is impossible to build a dream car with a low price of 25,000 US dollars (about RMB 1.7 million yuan) without reducing the battery cost and manufacturing cost. The old horse expects to sell 654.38 billion electric vehicles worldwide in 2030, which is the goal of killing fuel vehicles, but the price must be inversely proportional to the battery life.

So there is this series of pragmatic but not sexy plans. When the old horse is no longer the old horse that only uses black technology and Twitter to push up the market value, it is more threatening when it leans over and grabs the bricks of traditional car companies and hits them.

These local upgrades are more like the upgrade from 0 to 1 to 2 after the birth of 1. The changes during this period are not revolutionary, but they also represent higher technical content. The so-called revolution is partly evaluated from the effect, not the technology itself.

For example, in June, Musk tweeted that he claimed Model? The endurance version of S-long has exceeded 402 miles (about 647 kilometers) under the EPA standard, which is due to the lightweight battery drive unit, low rolling resistance tires and upgraded energy recovery system.

People often think that Tesla is a knowledge-intensive product, but it is also a fact that there is specialization in the industry. Silicon Valley elites are good at software architecture, and they can collect autopilot data directly for car owners. But there is still room for upgrading the software, and the traditional hardware will only be bigger.

In fact, the old horse has been carefully calculating, but this piece of content is not sexy, so it has been buried at the foot of the iceberg. Last year, Tesla spent US$ 2,654,388+0.8 million (about RMB 65,438+0.49 billion) to acquire the Japanese battery company Maxwell, which is good at supercapacitors and energy storage products, and one of the anode material powder technologies is one of the highlights of this battery day. The process is more simplified and relatively safe.

After the integration, the production capacity will be increased by more than 6 times. Musk's goal is to reach 100GWh in 2022. It will reach 3 TWh in 2030 (1twh =1000 GWh, similar to the hard disk capacity algorithm). Last year, the global shipment of lithium batteries was116.6gwh. Only from the current production capacity, Tesla is far from enough, and numerous jobs and investments are needed, so there is no need for Ma Lao to delay its happiness.

Battery cost has always been Musk's heart disease. This time, on the one hand, he released the electrodeless ear battery, which reduced the current internal resistance, shortened the distance between the two poles and improved the heat dissipation ability, on the other hand, he expanded the battery volume, that is, 4680, similar to BYD blade battery.

This way of strengthening energy by plastic means is relatively safe. It is worth noting that this kind of electrodeless ear battery will get 5 times energy increase (but not energy density), and its endurance will also increase by 16%.

In view of the fact that it will take some time to completely realize the conversion from cobalt-free to nickel, and the procurement of raw materials also needs the cooperation of nickel ore, Musk will reduce the cost in the short term from the aspects of lightweight upgrading, battery physical molding and negotiation with suppliers, but it does not rule out that these things can be integrated in the future.

Generally speaking, the amount of information in this battery day is still very large, but there are too many threads, lacking a large-scale visual sense. Maybe we should get used to a relatively trivial and meticulous Musk for a while, but Ma Lao has also provided a template for new forces, and the core technology will eventually be in our own hands. Musk does not rule out becoming a battery supplier in other countries. So logically, maybe we should give BYD a compliment?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.