The collapse of White Horse Stock 202 1 makes the bull stock in 2020 miserable. Even if 35 yuan offered Party 8 a high price of 10, its share price could not be recovered. Many people can't help but ask, is the beauty-loving customer completely hopeless? Whether there is an opportunity in the market outlook requires us to deeply study the value of this enterprise, and whether her business model has sustainable profitability? Is her moat strong enough to support it to go further?
For Amy, its business model is similar to liquor, which is a relatively simple business! Its implementation of "Industry-University-Research Medical" positioning, basically locked as an upstream provider, firmly grasp the commanding heights of profits. Compared with other medical beauty companies, she is a company born purely for women, and its main core products are products that make women beautiful. At this point, it is very consistent with my stock selection logic (the main business must be prominent). Domestic commercial enterprises have two essential business models: bigger and stronger. Personally, I prefer to be bigger and stronger. In fact, domestic well-known brands are basically like this. The main business is outstanding enough to continuously defend the moat of the enterprise. This is what Amy is doing. I am looking forward to seeing such a medical beauty company lead the domestic medical beauty industry to start, grow and mature!
202 1, Amy's retreat is relatively large. A very important reason is that her gross profit is so high, is it sustainable? You know, the gross profit of Kweichow Moutai is not as good as that of Amy. The difference is that the market is optimistic about the expectations of Kweichow Moutai, but not so optimistic about the beauty lovers of the new shares! So, we need to study first, can Amy's performance be maintained? Can high gross profit bring it a steady stream of cash flow?
First of all, from the general business model, this probability is very small, unless you commit suicide. As long as the company operates normally and continuously consolidates channels, with the acceptance of the public, the profits of Aimeike will be endless! This statement is not aimless. According to the Mob Research Institute's research on the post-95 consumer groups, it is not difficult to find that the post-95 consumer groups are significantly higher in beauty than other age groups. The key point is that once they decide to have plastic surgery, their decision-making time will not exceed two months. This speed is indeed in line with the simple style of "dare to love and hate" after 1995. According to research, more than 30% of the post-90s generation have cosmetic surgery plans, and 80% people like to share their cosmetic diary. Therefore, the beauty of plastic surgery has been increasingly recognized by the public. In addition, I also specially consulted a plastic surgeon who specializes in medical beauty. The duration of hyaluronic acid is about 6- 12 months, which means that once a woman starts to become beautiful through medical beauty plastic surgery, as long as it is normal, she will never get bored. In this case, in order to ensure her youth and beauty, they will start their own long road of medical beauty. The popular saying is: medical beauty is only zero and countless times. This is actually in line with human nature! So, as long as Amy doesn't die and the product is safe, its profits will continue!
Secondly, at present, only Aimeike in China has obtained the national approval of hyaluronic acid products. In at least three years, the influence and popularity of this product will be further opened after the listing of Aimeike, so the profit may increase geometrically. What about three years later? Don't worry, because the moat of Aimeike is not only a body, but also several rare products are being developed and listed. Therefore, at present, the profit growth of Aimeike is a high probability event! Next, let's take a look at Amy's powerful moats to defend profits.
Does the annual report see whether the moat is strong?
1 Advantages of the product
According to the data of its annual report, Hi-Ti is a scarce product for neck tattoo treatment in the domestic market, and it is the only Class III medical device approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in the domestic market at present. Studies by some research institutions show that no other manufacturers will enter this field in the next 2-3 years. From this perspective, Hi-body will continue to provide a steady stream of cash flow for Amy customers in the next 2-3 years!
2 Intellectual property rights to defend the commanding heights of profits
Let's not talk about how much R&D expenses we have invested. From the very beginning, Aimeike established an industrial chain of "production-learning-research-medicine", paying special attention to research and development, which is quite similar to the leading innovative medicine Hengrui in China. Although the cost of R&D is high, the barriers brought by patents are higher after successful research and development, and the national approval of the medical and beauty industry has raised the threshold to the extreme, so it will be made. Fortunately, Aimeike has done it, and the investment in R&D is much higher than that of other peers, and the results are also visible. High-tech has begun to take shape, and other products have been launched one after another. At present, Amy is forming a logical positive cycle of "production-learning-research-medicine". Judging from the research results published in its annual report, it is still good: 4 patent applications and 4 authorizations. Accumulated patents 4 1 item, including 23 inventions. It has eight core technologies such as tissue bionic liquid, bionic acellular tissue preparation and multifunctional hemostatic material preparation. These patents bring strong barriers to market entry, which will undoubtedly greatly enhance the moat of beauty lovers!
3 channel advantage, control pricing power
In the final analysis, it is the price and quantity of products that affect the profits of enterprises. Aimeike's business model of "production-learning-research-medicine" determines its price control power, especially when the domestic medical and beauty market is underdeveloped, the industry is still in the growth stage and its pricing power is stronger. Therefore, as long as there is no problem with product quality, then a strong marketing channel is the only way to increase profits. In fact, in this respect, Amy has also done a good job. The annual report shows that after years of deep cultivation, Aimeike has established a sales and service network covering 365,438+0 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions nationwide. Perfect sales channels have undoubtedly laid a good foundation for Amy's sales!
4 multi-products in parallel, the medical beauty track blooms everywhere.
If the first three advantages reflect the past achievements of Aimeike, then several products that Aimeike is studying will open up space for Aimeike! According to the information published in its annual report, Aimeike has distributed differentiated sodium hyaluronate injection, injection containing microspheres, botulinum toxin A, catgut embedding and weight management products. Among these products, three need our special attention:
(2) botulinum toxin type a. Compared with Jane, this product is more competitive. At present, four models have been approved in China. They are China Hengli, American Baotuoshi, British Jishi and Korean Letibao, and they occupy a relatively high market share! At present, many domestic enterprises are studying botulinum toxin, Huaxi Bio has reached the stage of listing application, and Aimeike is currently in the clinical trial stage. Judging from the market research, the probability of this product going on the market is still relatively large, but the profit may be squeezed, but there is no doubt that Aimeike is also expected to share a piece of the action.
(3) liraglutide
To be honest, I personally think this product is another killer for Amy. There is a simple reason. The proportion of obese people in China is very large. According to the data of Ai Media Consulting, the obese population in China has exceeded 250 million, and the potential people who want to lose weight and become beautiful may be several times this number. Therefore, the weight loss market in China is huge, because there are too many people who want to lose weight and shape. If you want to have a slim figure, you can ask the men, women and children around you. I believe the answer is yes! So in China with a population of1400 million, losing weight is an immeasurable market scale!
However, at present, only one product approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has less side effects. The drug 1998 was first marketed in New Zealand, with sales of1460,000 dollars that year and 538 million dollars in 2007. Visible, no matter in which country, losing weight is everyone's demand! In other words, at present, the domestic market is in short supply of diet pills, which is similar to Jane's situation. However, Aimeike's liraglutide project has entered the clinical stage, with the indication of treating type II diabetes as the transition, and the clinical project of obesity indication will continue in the later stage, and it is expected to enter the market in time to share a piece of it.
Patents need patents and approval. First of all, it has been ahead of other non-pure medical and beauty enterprises in China in administrative licensing. Secondly, its strong R&D capability enables its product line level and the growth and sustainable development of escort enterprises. Therefore, at present, the moat that loves beauty has basically taken shape. As long as there is no safety problem in its products, it is only a matter of time.
Performance, add the last fire to the stock price!
For three good companies, the support of performance is always the backing of stock price rise! At present, Amy's PE(= price per share and earnings per share) is relatively high. In the case of a certain number of shares, the lower the earnings per share, the higher the PE. Recently, Aimeike completed a high turnover of 10 to 8. During the same financial reporting period, the company's net profit remained unchanged, but the total number of shares changed from 65,438+0 times to 65,438+0.8 times, so the earnings per share was diluted and the corresponding valuation (PE) naturally increased! However, with the improvement of the new round of performance, especially the medical beauty products with such high gross profit, the substantial increase in earnings per share is a high probability event! Therefore, as long as Amy doesn't commit suicide (product safety problem), the sustained and steady growth of performance is a high probability event, and the valuation digestion is only a matter of time. Moreover, a big wave of callback after 202 1 has fully opened up the room for stock price rise!
In view of this, I think that as long as there is no problem with the performance in the first quarter, the market's concerns about the performance of Aimeike will disappear with the confirmation of the performance. Under the high gross profit, with the sinking of the beauty-loving channel, the performance will show explosive growth or predictability! So Amy stepped out of a wave of power-filling market, and I am optimistic about this!
(The opinion in this article is that I make reasonable inferences based on reasonable data, which only represents my personal opinion, and I act accordingly at my own risk. )