The sharp depreciation of RMB has its specific background.
Let's pay attention to which sectors will benefit from this devaluation.
Good sectors: shipping, textile, steel, automobile industry, etc.
I. Textile industry
First, let's look at the textile industry. In recent years, the renminbi has continued to appreciate, and many export-oriented enterprises in China are under great pressure. Conversely, the depreciation of the RMB will naturally give these enterprises a breathing space. Among these export-oriented enterprises, textile and garment enterprises undoubtedly occupy a considerable proportion. For many textile and garment enterprises whose profits are swallowed up by foreign exchange settlement, RMB depreciation will be one of the most direct means to stimulate performance growth. The short-term depreciation of RMB may not bring obvious incremental orders to textile and garment enterprises soon, but the export costs of related enterprises will still be significantly alleviated, which is still good for the textile and garment sector.
Related concept stocks include chinour, Seven Wolves, Good News Bird, Smith Barney, Luolai Home Textiles, Fuanna, Lutai A, Pathfinder and so on.
Second, the steel industry.
Overcapacity in the steel industry is a * * * knowledge, and the proposal of "Belt and Road" has painted a new development prospect for the industry. In other words, steel going abroad is an effective way to increase the profits of steel enterprises, especially in the case of RMB depreciation, which undoubtedly enhances the competitiveness of related steel enterprises.
Third, the shipping industry
The depreciation of RMB may stimulate the export of domestic textile industry, bring some benefits to container shipping, and even stimulate the demand for raw materials to drive the dry bulk transport market.
Related concept stocks include CSCL, Changhang Phoenix, China Ocean Shipping, Changhang Oil Transportation and Ningbo Shipping.
Fourth, chemical industry.
The depreciation of RMB will increase the purchasing cost of importing enterprises, but it will play a role in fueling the export-oriented chemical enterprises. Taking nitrogen fertilizer as an example, its raw materials mainly come from China, but the domestic market tends to be saturated, and the export volume of products is large, which is also positively affected by the depreciation of RMB. In addition, combined with the adjustment of export tariff policy of 20 15 fertilizer, the unified tariff for ammonium phosphate and urea is implemented throughout the year, which is of great benefit to the overall export of fertilizer.
Related concept stocks include Guofeng Plastic Industry, chlor-alkali chemical industry, Shandong Haihua, Juhua, Yinglite and Oak.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) automobile industry
The depreciation of RMB may reduce the attractiveness of imported car prices or inhibit the further expansion of imported car sales. On the whole, RMB depreciation is beneficial to companies with relatively high exports and relatively high negative imports. However, because most of the imports and exports in the industry have done hedging business, the short-term impact is not great. Luxury cars and core components are mostly imported from the automobile industry. It mainly involves SINOMACH and some companies that use Japanese core components, such as Guangzhou Automobile Group and FAW Car (Mazda parts imports account for 25% of the cost), and the costs of these companies have also increased slightly accordingly. As far as the sales volume of imported cars is concerned, every depreciation of 1% will increase the cost of 1%. However, due to the large fluctuation of terminal preferential margin, exchange rate fluctuation can be absorbed, and the real impact on the market is the purchasing power of domestic demand, while the impact of depreciation on psychological expectations is greater than the actual impact.
Related concept stocks include Zhejiang Furun, Jiangsu Sanyou and Lutai A (strong daily limit yesterday).
The negative sectors are mainly aviation, real estate and finance.
First, aviation.
Because airlines have a large amount of dollar liabilities in purchasing aircraft, the depreciation of RMB will inevitably lead to exchange losses. You can check the semi-annual report. Companies with long-term US dollar loans accounting for more than 65,438+00% of the company's net assets are mainly concentrated in aviation, paper making and other industries. The depreciation of RMB will have a certain negative impact on industries with relatively large dollar liabilities such as aviation and paper making, and the rebound of oil prices will also put pressure on aviation stocks; Maybe we can consider getting involved in aviation stocks on dips, because the performance of this industry has grown well this year.
Second, real estate.
The real estate industry is closely related to monetary policy, and this round of depreciation will put pressure on the property market. The decline of RMB exchange rate will strengthen the correction of real estate prices in the stage of oversupply in the real estate market.
The impact of the exchange rate decline on the property market is mainly manifested in the following three aspects: First, it affects the house price by changing the relationship between supply and demand of real estate. Xu Zhendong said that RMB depreciation will reduce the profit margin of speculative capital, promote capital outflow, and lead to the shortage of domestic funds flowing to the real estate industry, thus changing the current relationship between supply and demand of real estate. Under the condition that the total supply of real estate remains unchanged, due to the lack of financial and demand support, the impulse of rising real estate prices will be suppressed.
Secondly, increase people's living costs, thus squeezing the proportion of home ownership costs in life, and ultimately putting downward pressure on housing prices. Xu Zhendong's point of view is that the depreciation of RMB will cause the price of imported goods to rise, which will lead to the decrease of imports, the increase of domestic commodity prices, the lack of social purchasing power, the sluggish demand for real estate consumption, and finally the downward pressure on house prices.
Third, the depreciation of RMB may lead to the withdrawal of assets, especially the funds that poured into China from overseas in the early days will flow out of China because of the depreciation of RMB, or they will not dare to enter the China market easily again, which will help the domestic housing asset prices fall in various ways.
Third, the financial industry.
The depreciation of RMB is beneficial to the development of export-oriented enterprises in China, and it is also beneficial to the development of export-oriented enterprises. It is good for financial stability, but it is not good for banks to stop international arbitrage and ease the pressure of currency overshoot. The advantage lies in the decline of hot money and the slowdown of real estate regulation and control pressure, which is conducive to eliminating bubbles, but it will actually make funds flow to the investment field.
Generally speaking, after RMB depreciation, the central bank or RRR may cut interest rates in an all-round way. With the outflow of funds and the depreciation of RMB, the hematopoietic mechanism of domestic basic money has failed, and it is urgent for the central bank to cut interest rates in an all-round RRR way. In addition, RMB depreciation will ease the risk of domestic deflation. It is also conducive to economic recovery. The depreciation of RMB relieves the export pressure, which is the way of steady growth with the lowest cost. From June 5438 to July, exports were -0.8% year-on-year. Although the global trade volume is shrinking, it will not lead to the export of China shrinking so much. The depreciation of RMB exchange rate is helpful to reduce export pressure and economic recovery. The real economy will gradually improve in the third quarter, which will support the stock market. It will also promote the flow of resident assets to the stock market. With the moderate depreciation of RMB and the downward trend of domestic interest rates, the attractiveness of bank savings and real estate investment has declined, and the "surviving A shares" will attract funds from banks and the property market to flow to the stock market. Therefore, it is good for the stock market.