China is a major producer of basic chemical raw materials in the world. By the end of 20 1 1, the output of soda ash, caustic soda, sulfuric acid, calcium carbide, methanol, terephthalic acid and PVC in China ranked first in the world. However, the structural and unsustainable contradictions faced by China's basic chemical raw material manufacturing industry are increasingly prominent. Mainly reflected in two aspects: First, the problem of overcapacity of bulk products is prominent. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the operating rates of calcium carbide, ethanol, dimethyl ether and acetic acid were only 60.9%, 40%, 25% and 6 1% respectively. Second, the cost of resources and environment is too high. The manufacturing of basic chemical raw materials is a traditional industry with high energy consumption and high pollution. Among the key monitoring enterprises of waste water and waste gas announced by the state, basic chemical raw material production enterprises account for more than one fifth. 20 13 countries have repeatedly improved the access conditions of basic chemical raw materials industries and made great efforts to eliminate backward production capacity. However, due to factors such as steady economic growth and insufficient private capital investment channels, the basic pattern of excessive enterprises and overcapacity has not changed.
From the demand level, there is no obvious regional and seasonal difference in the consumption of basic chemical raw materials in China, but there is a certain periodicity. The performance of an enterprise is usually a performance change, such as gross profit margin, growth rate of industrial sales output value and profit growth rate ahead of macroeconomic changes. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China will continue to intensify structural adjustment and guide the basic chemical raw material manufacturing industry to optimize and upgrade. According to the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Petroleum and Chemical Industry, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China will implement strict total control measures for some industries with overcapacity, and strive to control the production capacity of caustic soda, soda ash, methanol and calcium carbide at 36.5438+00,000 tons/year, 30,000,000 tons/year, 40,000 tons/year and 28,000,000 tons/year respectively. Encourage basic chemical raw material enterprises to make great efforts to adjust the product structure and make breakthroughs in the production of high-end petrochemical products such as bisphenol A, polyethylene polyamine, adipic acid, aliphatic and cycloaliphatic diisocyanate (ADI) and propylene oxide (hydrogen peroxide method). At the same time, enterprises are encouraged to implement waste heat and pressure utilization, oil conservation and energy system optimization projects, reduce emissions and improve resource utilization efficiency. Fertilizer manufacturing industry includes six sub-industries: nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, compound fertilizer, organic fertilizer, biological fertilizer and other fertilizer manufacturing. Because the proportion of organic fertilizer, biological fertilizer and other fertilizers is less than 2%, the fertilizer manufacturing industry usually refers to the fertilizer industry dominated by nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer, potassium fertilizer and compound fertilizer. The upstream of chemical fertilizer industry is mainly coal, natural gas, potash ore, phosphate rock and other commodities, 90% of which are used for agriculture and 10% for industry. Among them, the application ratio of agricultural chemical fertilizer N, P and K is 1: 0.36: 0. 18.
China is the largest producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer in the world, and its self-sufficiency rate of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer is between 1 10%- 120%. In contrast, due to the serious shortage of soluble potash resources in China, the self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer is less than 60%, and the dependence on foreign countries is high. From a global perspective, the global potash distribution and potash production capacity are highly concentrated, and the two major potash trade organizations, BPC and Canpotex, monopolize more than 90% of the global pure production capacity. From June 5th every year to February the following year, China participated in the global potash price negotiation. Generally speaking, because the self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer in China has steadily increased and the freight rate is lower than that in India and other countries, it has always maintained a "low-lying" position in the international potash price. Compared with each year, agricultural production has the characteristics of "cobweb model", so from the annual growth rate of output, there are big and small.
The demand for chemical fertilizer in agricultural production in China has obvious seasonality. Generally speaking, March to 10 is the peak consumption season, and 1 10 is the low consumption season. Among them, 10 used a large amount of fertilizer for spring ploughing from late February to early April and autumn sowing from late August to1early October, while the demand for summer fertilizer was small from late May to early June. In order to ensure fertilizer supply in peak season and stabilize price fluctuation, on the one hand, the state has established a commercial fertilizer reserve system in off-season, on the other hand, it has implemented an export tariff system with different taxes in off-season and higher tax rate in peak season, giving priority to ensuring domestic fertilizer supply. The above policies are also constantly improving. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China's fertilizer industry will enter a critical period of structural adjustment. According to the 12th Five-Year Development Plan of Fertilizer Industry, by 20 15, China's fertilizer demand will reach 66 10 tons, with an average compound annual growth rate of 1. 17%, which will be significantly lower than the level of 5% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Therefore, during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's fertilizer industry will accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure and improve its industrial scale and strength through mergers and acquisitions; Optimize the industrial layout, establish and improve large-scale phosphate fertilizer bases in Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Sichuan and other phosphorus resource producing areas, build large-scale potash fertilizer bases based on the advantages of potassium salt resources in Qinghai and Xinjiang, and promote the concentration of basic fertilizers in resource producing areas and advantageous enterprises; At the same time, promote technological progress, improve resource support capacity, and strengthen safe development. Pesticide manufacturing refers to the production activities of various chemical pesticides, microbial pesticides and biochemical pesticides used to prevent and control diseases, insects, weeds, rats and other pests of agricultural and forestry crops, and to regulate plant growth, as well as raw drugs and preparations used in warehouses, agricultural and forestry products, river dams, railways, airports, buildings and other places. According to the classification standard of manufacturing industry of National Bureau of Statistics, China's pesticide manufacturing industry includes chemical pesticide manufacturing, biochemical pesticide manufacturing and microbial pesticide manufacturing. From the production link, pesticide manufacturing can be divided into two links: original drug and preparation.
Pesticides are important agricultural production materials and disaster relief materials. Since 2007, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer of pesticides. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's pesticide output increased by 15.3% annually, and by 20 10, the total national pesticide output reached 2.342 million tons. China's pesticide production has the following characteristics: first, the scale of enterprises is small, and the industry concentration is low. By the end of 20 1 1, there were only 9 large-scale pesticide production enterprises in China, accounting for1.16% of the total number of industrial enterprises; CR9 is 1 1.82, while the global pre-CR8 is over 80%. Second, the product structure is not reasonable. Due to the lack of scientific and technological innovation ability, there is an oversupply of low-end products and a shortage of high-end products in China. Take the glyphosate industry as an example. 20 10-20 1 1 year, the operating rate of glyphosate industry in China is only about 50-60%. High-tech environmental protection products with high efficiency, low toxicity and low residue are heavily dependent on imports.
From the demand level, China is the largest consumer of pesticides in the world. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the apparent consumption of pesticides in China increased by 18.6% annually, which was 3.3 percentage points higher than the output growth rate. By the end of 20 10, it reached 654,380+0.78 million tons, accounting for 76% of the pesticide output in the same period. The demand for pesticides in China has the following characteristics: First, it is dominated by domestic demand, and the growth rate is relatively stable. In 20 10, the national pesticide export volume was 610.3 million tons, accounting for 26.2% of the output in the same period. Second, it is seasonal. Similar to chemical fertilizer, April ~ 10 is the peak consumption season every year. At the same time, short-term consumption is greatly affected by weather factors such as plum rain. Third, excessive use of highly toxic and residual chemical pesticides has caused serious environmental pollution.
The adjustment of industrial structure is an important task during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. According to the "Twelfth Five-Year" development plan of agricultural industry formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, China's agricultural industry will focus on the following tasks in 20 15 years: First, vigorously adjust the industrial structure. By encouraging the implementation of merger and reorganization, we will strive to make the output of the top 20 pesticide production enterprises account for more than 50% of the total output by 20 15; Form 3-5 industrial parks with moderate scale, complete facilities, high management level and obvious pesticide characteristics throughout the country; Focus on the development of efficient, safe and environmentally friendly pesticides and herbicides, and the proportion of high-toxic and high-residue varieties decreased from 5% in 20 12 to 3%. Second, improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation. Form a scientific research system combining Industry-University-Research, and increase the development of key technologies and integrated technologies in the pesticide industry. Third, develop and implement cleaner production technology, vigorously develop circular economy and comprehensive utilization of resources, and improve the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of resources. According to the classification standard of manufacturing industry of National Bureau of Statistics, China's paint, ink, pigment and similar products manufacturing industry includes five sub-industries: paint manufacturing industry, ink and similar products manufacturing industry, pigment manufacturing industry, dye manufacturing industry and sealing filler and similar products manufacturing industry. Among them, the coating industry is the largest sub-industry, and the coating output accounts for 68.48% of the total output of 20 10.
China is the largest producer of paints and dyes in the world. In terms of coatings, in 2009, the total output of China coatings industry reached 7,554,400 tons, surpassing the United States in one fell swoop and ranking first in the world. In terms of dyes, since 2006, the total output of synthetic dyes in China has reached 1 156000 tons, accounting for 1/3 of the global output, and has now exceeded 60%. From the perspective of supply concentration, the proportion of industrial sales output value of large enterprises in this industry is only 3.67%, which is the lowest among all chemical sub-industries. However, from the perspective of subdivided products, the concentration is high. For example, in the field of disperse dyes, Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu and Hangjihua account for 74%; In the field of reactive dyes, the four major enterprises, including bentonite, account for more than 85% of the total production capacity. The main problems in China's paint, ink, pigment and similar products manufacturing industry are large but not strong, and serious environmental pollution. A large number of products related to strategic emerging industries rely heavily on imports. For example, the coating of wind turbine blades in China depends almost entirely on imports. From the point of view of environmental pollution, there have been many heavy metal pollution incidents caused by this industry in China since 20 1 1, such as the pollution incident of Dongying DuPont Company in 2008. It is urgent to improve the scientific and technological content of products, reduce pollution and develop green economy.
From the downstream demand, the downstream industries of coatings, inks, pigments and similar products are mainly real estate, automobiles, clothing, textiles and printing. Generally speaking, it is greatly influenced by macroeconomics, but there is no obvious seasonal difference.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's paint, ink, pigment and similar products manufacturing industry will enter a critical period from strong to large. According to the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of Petroleum and Chemical Industry, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China paint, ink and pigment manufacturing industry will increase the production of high-grade paints and new fluorine-containing dyes with special environmental protection functions, prevent and control heavy metal pollution in pigments and other industries, reduce heavy metal emissions, build a circular economy and promote healthy and sustainable development of the industry. According to the manufacturing classification standard of National Bureau of Statistics, China's synthetic materials manufacturing industry is divided into four sub-industries: primary plastics and synthetic resin manufacturing, synthetic rubber manufacturing, synthetic fiber monomer (polymer) manufacturing and other synthetic materials manufacturing. The upstream of synthetic materials are large petrochemical products such as ethylene and propylene, and the downstream covers infrastructure, home appliances, real estate, automobile manufacturing, plastic industry and other industries, which are widely used.
China is one of the largest producers of synthetic resin, synthetic rubber and synthetic fiber in the world. During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rates of synthetic resin, synthetic rubber and synthetic fiber in China were 15.3%,1%,1 1.4% respectively, which was higher than the domestic GDP growth rate in the same period, and the output reached 20/kloc respectively. However, from the perspective of product structure, China's synthetic materials are mainly general synthetic materials, with low technical content and added value, and insufficient supply of high-end industrial products. In the fields of high-end brand synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and synthetic rubber, there is a lack of international advanced independent technology, and products such as polycarbonate and caprolactam are heavily dependent on imports, so the product structure needs to be optimized and upgraded urgently. From the perspective of concentration, the overall concentration of synthetic materials industry is not high. By the end of 20 1 1, there were 2,079 enterprises in the whole industry, of which large, medium and small enterprises accounted for 1.88% and 10.25% and 87.88% respectively, and the average industrial sales output value of the whole industry was only 51. The situation in some industries is slightly different, such as the tire industry. Up to 20 10, the industry CR 10 has reached 70%, and 20 1 1 has been further improved. From the perspective of raw material supply, with the gradual commissioning of a large number of ethylene plants in China, the bottleneck of raw materials has been greatly alleviated. However, the production of ethylene in China is mainly based on calcium carbide method, which has outstanding problems such as high cost and heavy pollution compared with the oil routes in the Middle East and other regions.
China has a great demand for synthetic materials. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the demand growth rates of China's three major products were 9.77%, 13.4% and 8. 15% respectively. In terms of external dependence, the external dependence of 20 1 1 synthetic resin is 35.7%, while the external dependence of ABS resin is as high as 54.86%. Excluding the overseas dumping caused by the expansion of production capacity in the Middle East, the high dependence on foreign countries also shows that domestic production capacity can not meet domestic demand in terms of output, price and product structure. From the perspective of demand structure, China's synthetic materials are mainly concentrated in the fields of automobiles, electronics, light industry, textiles, building materials and so on. From the characteristics of demand change, the downstream demand is highly correlated with the macro-economy, but the seasonality is not obvious. From the perspective of external demand, tires are the main export products. About 40% of the national tire production is exported, one third of which is exported to the United States. In recent years, there have been many trade disputes between China and the United States around tire products.
Judging from the development trend, according to the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of Petrochemical Industry, the growth rate of demand for traditional synthetic materials in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period will be lower than the GDP growth rate in the same period. For example, the average annual growth rate of demand for polyethylene, ethylene glycol and styrene-butadiene rubber is 4.2%, 5.0% and 4.0% respectively. Correspondingly, the average annual demand growth rate of some high-tech products such as caprolactam is 12.5%, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate. Therefore, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China's synthetic materials industry should make great efforts to adjust the industrial structure, product structure and regional structure while expanding the source of raw materials and strengthening energy conservation and emission reduction, and strive to further increase the industry concentration and the proportion of high-end petrochemical products by the end of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, and strive to improve the domestic support capacity of engineering plastics, special rubber and high-performance fibers by 20 percentage points compared with 20 10. Specialty chemicals manufacturing is a sub-industry with the largest income, the largest profit contribution, the largest number of sub-sectors and the largest number of enterprises in China chemical industry. According to the manufacturing classification standard of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's special chemicals manufacturing industry includes eight sub-industries, including chemical reagents and additives manufacturing, special chemicals manufacturing, forest chemicals manufacturing, information chemicals manufacturing, special medical materials manufacturing for environmental pollution control, animal glue manufacturing, pyrotechnics and fireworks manufacturing and other special chemicals manufacturing. Generally speaking, special chemicals and fine chemicals are isomorphic to form the concept of "fine chemicals". Some products with high technical content and advanced technology belong to the category of "new chemical materials" and are closely related to "strategic emerging industries".
Driven by strong downstream demand, import substitution and high-tech barriers, China's special chemicals industry has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2009, the proportion of special chemicals in the total output value of the chemical industry reached 25%, and the proportion of total profits reached 365,438+0%, surpassing the chemical raw material production industry for the first time and becoming the largest sub-industry of the chemical industry. From the product level, during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the average annual demand growth rate of China's engineering plastics, silicone monomer and PTFE products reached 1 1.7%, 14.9% and 13.4%, which was significantly higher than the domestic GDP growth rate in the same period. However, there are also some outstanding problems in China's specialty chemicals production industry, such as low technical level, relatively backward development, extensive production methods and insufficient supply of high-end products. Judging from the refinement rate, China's refinement rate is only about 40%, far below the level of 60%-70% in advanced developed regions such as the United States, Japan and Western Europe. A considerable number of key and high-tech specialty chemicals, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, are still heavily dependent on imports. From the perspective of industry concentration, large enterprises in the specialty chemicals industry only account for 0.4% of the total number of enterprises, and small enterprises account for 92.62%, so the industry concentration is low. However, as far as a specific product segment is concerned, it is easy for a few enterprises to form oligopoly competition. Globally, Morita Chemical, Kanto Electrochemical and SUTERAKEMIFA account for 85% of the global lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity. The synthetic camphor of Songqing Company, the largest turpentine producer in China, accounts for 45% of the national production capacity; Jianxin Company, the largest producer of m-amino in China, has a market share of 40% in China and 28% in the world.
There are many kinds of special chemicals, and their downstream uses are extensive. A considerable proportion of chemical products are still in the introduction period, so the overall growth of special chemical industry is outstanding. In the first quarter of 2009, the industrial sales output value of chemical raw materials, synthetic materials and other industries dropped sharply, while the professional chemical industry achieved a rapid growth of 15.37%. Since 20 10, the growth rate is still in the forefront of the chemical industry. However, it is not appropriate to divide the seasonal, cyclical and regional demand of special chemicals from the total amount. Under the same macro background, it is entirely possible that different sub-products of special chemicals face completely different supply and demand patterns.
The development prospect of special chemicals is broad. From the demand level, according to the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of Petrochemical Industry, the demand growth rate of engineering plastics, silicone monomer and PTFE in new chemical materials is 10. 1%,1.6% and 8.6% respectively, which is the fastest growing sub-industry in the chemical industry. On the other hand, from the perspective of supply, due to the huge market demand, low factor cost and the continuous improvement of manufacturers' production technology, many domestic manufacturers began to undertake domestic capacity transfer in the form of "customized production". This means that during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the supply of special chemical products will be more adequate. According to the Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan of Petrochemical and Chemical Industry, China will continue to encourage powerful enterprises producing new chemical materials and new special chemicals to merge and reorganize across regions, expand the scale of enterprises, promote product development, and form a number of high-tech enterprises that are in the leading position in the industry; At the same time, strengthen technological innovation and pay attention to the development of new special chemicals with high performance, environmental protection and intrinsic safety, such as electronic chemicals, food additives, feed additives, water treatment chemicals and environmentally friendly plastic additives. The daily chemical industry is the smallest sub-industry in the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products in China. According to the manufacturing classification standard of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's daily chemical manufacturing industry includes five sub-industries: soap and synthetic detergent manufacturing, cosmetics manufacturing, oral cleaning products manufacturing, flavors and fragrances manufacturing and other daily chemical products manufacturing. The daily chemical products manufacturing industry directly faces the terminal consumption demand and has strong consumption attributes.
China is the largest comprehensive market for daily chemicals in the world. From 2006 to 20 1 1 year, the industrial sales output value of daily chemical industry in China increased by 17.37% annually, which was basically the same as the nominal GDP growth rate in the same period. From the perspective of supply structure, the industrial sales value of 20 1 1 large enterprises accounts for 32.57% of the industrial sales value of the whole industry, which is the highest concentration among all sub-industries in the chemical industry. Judging from the characteristics of owners, the dominant position of foreign-funded enterprises is a remarkable feature of the daily chemical industry in China. By 20 1 1, the industrial sales output value and total profit of foreign-funded and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises account for 54.98% and 64. 13% of the corresponding indicators of the whole industry respectively. There are a large number of national brands of daily chemical products in China, such as Little Nurse, Dabao and Meijiajing. They have been taken over by foreign capital, and the safety of daily chemical industry has increasingly become the focus of attention of all parties concerned.
From the demand point of view, the downstream demand of daily chemical industry in China is stable, while that in income elasticity of demand is low, with no obvious regional, cyclical and seasonal characteristics. The elasticity of industrial sales output value of daily chemical products to nominal GDP since 2006 is calculated, and it is found that the value is 0.94, which is inelastic. This feature is reflected in the data of industrial sales output value of the daily chemical industry, and the growth rate is slower than that of the chemical industry for a long time, with a small fluctuation. At the same time, because daily chemical products are directly related to people's livelihood. In the case of increasing inflation, prices are often controlled by the government, which is not conducive to the industry to pass on costs.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's daily chemical industry will still maintain the overall trend of steady growth. However, with the improvement of residents' income level, consumption upgrading will become the main opportunity for the development of daily chemical industry. Increasing consumer research, improving product quality, perfecting sales network and optimizing after-sales service have become the main directions for the development of daily chemical industry.