With the continuous improvement of global economic integration and the gradual change of economic growth mode, the influence of foreign trade on the economic development of a country, especially developing countries, is increasing day by day. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to understand the history and present situation of China's foreign trade, grasp its future development trend and correctly judge the future economic situation. I. Historical Review of China's Foreign Trade It is an indispensable part of developing countries' economic development strategy to utilize international trade, accelerate the development of national economy, promote the upgrading and optimization of domestic industries, and achieve the goal of industrialization as soon as possible. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly, playing an increasingly important role in promoting the sustained and rapid growth of the whole economy. According to statistics, from 1978 to 1998, the total foreign trade of China was 654.38+0.756697 billion yuan, 75 times that of 1998, of which the total import was 83.55 835. 1.89 billion yuan, which was/. Import and export have maintained a certain growth rate in the past 20 years. Moreover, exports are slightly higher than imports in both increase and quantity, maintaining a relatively balanced relationship (see table 1). 2. China's dependence on trade is increasing. It is generally believed that the proportion of a country's total import and export volume to GNP is called its trade dependence, which is used to measure the dependence of a country's national economy on international trade and the level of opening up to the outside world. Generally speaking, countries with trade dependence below 5% are closed countries, 5%- 10% are relatively open countries, and more than 20% are the most open countries or typical trading countries. It is not difficult to see from the table 1 that China's dependence on trade has been increasing since 78 years, and the degree of foreign trade opening has been quite high, and it has basically developed from a relatively open country to a big trading country. 3. China's export trade accounts for an increasing proportion of the world's export trade, and the ranking of 1997 has risen to the tenth place. With the expansion of the scale of foreign trade and the increase of export volume, China's export volume has obviously changed both in quantity and in the proportion and ranking of world exports. 1980, China's exports were1.81.200 million dollars, while the world's exports were 1.9906 billion dollars, accounting for 0.9% of the world's exports, ranking 26th. By 1997, China's export volume was 1.8279 billion US dollars, 9. 1 times higher than that of 1980, accounting for 3.2% of the world's total export volume, and it has already squeezed into the top ten in terms of ranking. And before that, it has been ranked 1 1 in the world for five consecutive years. China has become an important trading country in the world. The rapid growth of export has made great contribution to economic growth. 1998 Due to the financial crisis, China's exports only increased by 0.5%, but from 1979 to 1997, China's export trade maintained a high growth rate. Among them, 13 maintained a chain growth rate of more than 20%. (See table 1) From 8 1 to 1998, the average growth rate of exports was 26.7%, and the average growth rate of GDP was 9.98%, which was much higher than the average growth rate of GDP and investment (22.07%) in the same period. Among the three factors that promote economic development: investment, consumption and export, export plays an increasingly significant role. 5. China's foreign trade has a certain contribution and pulling effect on GDP. We use the structural relative number method to judge the degree of local influence on the whole, including the influence on the total amount and increment, by investigating the proportion of local to the whole. The formula is as follows: the pulling degree of foreign trade GDP = (net export increment /GDP increment) * relative GDP increment. The formula includes two parts: the contribution of foreign trade to GDP = net export increment /GDP increment; Foreign trade GDP pull = contribution * GDP relative increment, steel pipe shot blasting machine. According to the statistical results, from 1978 to 1998, China's foreign trade contributed to and pulled GDP, except for a few years when the trade deficit was negative. Among them, 66. 1% of GDP growth in 1983 was contributed by foreign trade, and 7.2 percentage points of GDP growth in that year was driven by foreign trade. The contribution rate of 1997 was as high as 33.9%, that is, 33.9% of China's GDP growth in 1997 was contributed by foreign trade. The pull is 3%, indicating that 3% of the 8.8% growth is driven by foreign trade. 1998, affected by the financial crisis, China's export volume dropped sharply, with the chain growth rate dropping to 0.5%, the contribution to GDP dropping to 5.3%, and the pull to 0.4%. It can be said that the sharp decline in exports failed to play a corresponding role in stimulating GDP growth, which is an important reason why 1998 GDP growth did not reach 8%. So the weight of foreign trade is obvious to an open country. II. Analysis of the Future Trend of China's Foreign Trade 1, Analysis of the International Environment of Foreign Trade (1) Changes in the World Economy and Trends in the International Market Due to the turbulent international situation, international organizations have different views on the future economic situation. In the report of Global Economic Outlook, the World Bank predicted that the world economic growth rate would be 1.9%, the International Monetary Fund predicted that it would be 2.2%-2.3%, and the article in the German newspaper Le Monde1February 1998 said that according to the predictions of many international organizations, the world economic growth rate could reach 2. To sum up, we can preliminarily judge that the world economic growth rate of 1999 should be more scientific at around 2%. (2) Changes in World Trade and China's Major Trading Countries (Regions) According to the forecast of OECD, world trade will increase by 5.3% in 1999 and 6. 1% in 2000, which is higher than the figure of 4.6% in 1998, indicating that 1999. For China, the situation of several major trading countries may have more direct significance to the development of China's foreign trade. As usual, it is a matter of opinion. We conservatively estimate that the economic growth rate of the United States can still be maintained at 2.5%-3%. Although it is slightly lower than the growth rate of 3.5% in 1998, it is estimated that it has little impact on China's foreign trade. The economic situation in Japan is not optimistic. Due to the Japanese economic recession, it is estimated that it will not stimulate China's foreign trade. It is estimated that 1999 will not shake off the negative growth, but there is a great possibility of recovery, which should be beneficial to China's foreign trade. 199 Europe and the EU will maintain moderate economic growth, with the growth rate exceeding 2.2%, which will not worsen China's foreign trade relations with them. (3) The process of China's accession to the WTO and its influence on China's foreign trade import and export. The principle of China's accession to the WTO is to take tariff concessions as the main cost and enjoy the treatment of developing countries as the premise. The benefits of joining the WTO can be summarized as follows: a. You can enjoy multilateral, unconditional and permanent MFN treatment in more than 30 member countries. B. Solve international trade frictions through the WTO and protect China's economic and trade interests. Timely access to international economic and trade information. Tariff concession is the most important price for China to join the WTO, and it is also one of the most important factors that affect China's import and export trade. With the deepening of this process, China has continuously reduced its import restrictions. Since 1992, the tariff has been lowered four times, and the average tariff has been reduced from 45% to 17%, and it is promised to be further reduced to 10% in 2005. 1997, about 40% of the tax-reduced varieties are above the average level. The average decline of several categories of products is: mineral products 3 1%, chemical raw materials and products 19%, wood and paper products 32%, mechanical and electrical products 18%, light industrial products 3 1%, agricultural products 34% and textiles 17%. After China's entry into the WTO, tariffs will be greatly reduced, which will not only help ease the import of products necessary for the development of China's national economy, but also increase the import of other commodities, with the direct consequence of increasing the total import volume and quantity. As far as exports are concerned, its function is the same. With the abolition of trade discrimination, China's exports of products with more advantages, such as textiles and light industrial products, will greatly increase. This is a theoretical judgment, but considering other factors comprehensively, it is not difficult to find that the benefits of China's accession to the WTO are not very obvious in the short term. After 1994, China has maintained a trade surplus and its foreign trade is in good condition. If we join the WTO, the import will increase greatly due to the sharp drop in tariffs, and the current domestic policy of expanding domestic demand will easily lead to a large increase in imports. In this case, if exports cannot keep up immediately, it is very likely that the foreign trade situation will reverse and the deficit will replace the surplus. Excluding other factors, in the short term, the export advantage is only concentrated on textiles and household appliances, which has little impact on the overall export situation. 2. Analysis of foreign trade domestic environment (1) Macro situation in the first half of the year and its impact on GDP growth. In the first half of the year, the GDP was 36 189 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year. The slowdown in fixed assets investment has no obvious catalytic effect on private investment, and it is estimated that it will have a certain impact on future GDP growth. The price index continues to fall, consumer demand is still insufficient, and the restrictive effect on economic growth will not change substantially. Foreign trade exports declined, and the trade surplus decreased significantly. In the first five months, China's total exports amounted to US$ 67.6 billion, down 5.3% year-on-year. Imports were $60.5 billion, up by15.3%; The surplus decreased by11800 million USD. According to this optimistic estimate, the foreign trade situation will not deteriorate in the future, and net exports will not have an ideal contribution and pull to GDP growth. (2) The future economic growth trend of China and the objective requirements of import and export growth. From the above analysis of the macro situation, we can see that the three major factors that have a significant impact on GDP growth-investment, consumption and export-are not optimistic in the future. Judging from the economic operation in the first half of the year, it is estimated that the GDP of 1999 will increase between 7.6% and 8%. Excluding other factors, exports can only be guaranteed if they maintain their contribution and stimulate at least 98 years or a small increase. On the other hand, if there is a big change in exports in the second half of the year, which is better than the estimated value, it may have a more ideal contribution and pulling effect on GDP growth. (3) The future trend of RMB and its impact on China's foreign trade import and export In the Southeast Asian financial crisis, China insisted on the RMB not depreciating, which contributed to the economic stability of the whole region. Today, if we continue to insist that the RMB will not depreciate, it will be in contradiction with the policy of starting domestic demand. The RMB sticks to the level of 8.27, and the real exchange rate of RMB appreciates when all neighboring countries depreciate. In this case, the most direct result is a sharp increase in imports and a sharp decrease in exports, which has been fully reflected in the foreign trade operation last year and the first half of this year. What's more, the strength of RMB makes it difficult to effectively implement policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) to expand domestic demand, which may lead to the continued weakness of the whole macro economy. From this point of view, if the government adopts corresponding policies to curb the trend of RMB appreciation in the future, the result will effectively change the situation that foreign trade exports have fallen sharply and imports have increased sharply. 3. Research on the future trend of China's foreign trade (1) According to historical statistics, the average contribution of net exports to GDP in 1979- 1998 was 7.6%, with an average pull of 0.56%, which accounted for a small share of the three major factors (investment, consumption and export) that drove economic growth. On the one hand, it shows that although the position of foreign trade in economic growth is increasing day by day, the overall level is still very limited, and there is still much room for improvement; On the other hand, this shows that if the import and export further increase, it will undoubtedly make a strong contribution to the growth of GDP. Comprehensive analysis of the international and domestic economic situation, combined with the specific situation of China's foreign trade, 1999 foreign trade situation will not change much compared with 1998. According to the situation in the first half of the year, the net export of 1999 is estimated to be lower than that of 1998, so the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth is basically not higher than the level of 0.5% of 1998, and it can only account for 0.5 percentage point of GDP growth at best. Total net exports will be between 40 billion and 45 billion dollars. (2) After 20 years of development, China's foreign trade structure has basically formed a more reasonable pattern. Theoretically speaking, the formation of a pattern is a matter of time, so no matter the product structure or regional structure, there will be no substantial changes in a year or two. Industrial manufactured goods have absolute advantages in both import and export. Although the import of primary products is increasing, it will not endanger the status quo in the short term. This pattern is as follows: imports of finished products account for 80% of the total, and exports account for about 85%; Imports of primary products account for nearly 20% of the total, while exports account for less than 15% of the total. From the perspective of regional structure, Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other provinces (cities) will maintain their absolute advantages. China's main trade targets are still the United States, Japan, Hongkong and the European Union, but it does not rule out the increase of China's trade with other countries, such as Africa and Latin America.