The influence of PPI on CPI is mainly realized through the purchasing cost of the affected enterprises. The purchasing cost is restricted by various environmental factors, and the national policy regulates some key prices, so this influence is uncertain. In addition, because the investigation contents of PPI and CPI are obviously different, it will also lead to the inconsistency between PPI and CPI. For example, because of the consumption structure, food prices have a great weight in the composition of CPI in China, while food weights are relatively small in the composition of PPI, while energy and raw materials account for a large proportion. This difference in content will also lead to differences or even deviations between CPI and PPI.
The phenomenon of scissors difference (upside down) between PPI and CPI in China began in May 2008. In May, PPI rose by 8.2% year-on-year, and CPI rose by 7.7%. In this round of price increase, PPI exceeded CPI by 0.5 percentage points for the first time, by 1.7 percentage points in June, by 3.7 percentage points in July, and by 5.2 percentage points in August. The inversion of CPI and PPI indicates that the gross profit margin of manufacturing enterprises is further compressed, and the downward trend of corporate profits is difficult to see an inflection point in the short term, and the future performance is not optimistic.
Analysts believe that from the perspective of cost impact, since 2004, the upstream prices represented by the purchase price index of raw materials, fuel and power have obviously squeezed the profits of industrial enterprises. In August, the index was 15.3%, which was 0. 1 percentage point lower than last month, but the range was still very large, which made enterprises, especially industrial enterprises, face greater cost pressure and severe challenges in profit growth.
From the semi-annual report of listed companies in 2008, manufacturing industry is the main industry under cost pressure. Compared with the same period of last year, the sales profit rate of 17 sub-sector decreased in 20081-June, and the sales profit rate of 10 sub-sector decreased by more than 4.4%. The sales profit rate of 12 sub-industry has improved, and the sales profit rate of 10 sub-industry with the largest increase has increased by more than 8.9%. Even industry leaders can't escape. Sany Heavy Industry's financial report shows that the company's operating income and net profit increased by 60.23% and decreased by 65,438+0.02% respectively, with earnings per share of 0.55 yuan. The gross profit margin of the company's concrete machinery decreased.
Liu Yuhui, director of China Economic Evaluation Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, judged that due to the rising PPI, corporate profits will be further squeezed in the second half of the year, making it more difficult for enterprises to survive. He analyzed that most enterprises in China are manufacturing enterprises, especially export-oriented manufacturing enterprises. The manufacturing part belongs to the bottom of the smile curve in the global industrial chain division of labor, and its bargaining power is weak. In the case that the upstream raw material price increase and terminal sales are controlled, we can only digest the price increase factors ourselves, and with the implementation of the macro-economic austerity policy by the state, the business difficulties of enterprises will undoubtedly be further aggravated.